Jul 21, 2012

Deportivo Cuenca - Independiente

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Odds went down a bit here, but the bet looks good enough to try it even now. Independiente have lost the first round like suckers, drawing with Loja, when a win would have been enough to qualify for the final of the league. They moved on, and they started this second round with a solid win over the same Loja, but today things should get a bit more complicated for them. First of all, they will have to play without a few key players: goalkeeper Azcona (21), defender Ramirez (17/0) and forward Solis (14/3). But the most important thing is that they always find it difficult to play against Cuenca, a team that managed to win both matches in the first round. That takes Cuenca to 6 consecutive wins against Independiente. They were in a very good run of form, finishing the first round with wins over Independiente and Barcelona, but they eventually had to stop their winning run last week, losing 0-1 at Emelec. Also, today we might see the debut of their new transfers: forwards Vazquez who came from Quilmes and Castillo from Lobos of Mexico. I expect Cuenca to continue their dominance over Independiente. GL!

Cuenca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON

Jul 18, 2012

Real Garcilaso - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

It should be getting more and more risky to bet on Garcilaso, as I'm very sure they won't keep their perfect home record throughout the season, and they are bound to fail eventually, but I also don't see that happening today. 11 games won at home from 11 played, with 21 goals scored and only 2 conceded... they should be going for the record here, and even though the high altitude from their home city of Cusco did a lot to help, we can't minimize their merits, so the 3rd place that they sit on currently is more than justified (after all, they only lost 4 matches from the 23 the played). Meanwhile, Sport Boys sits near the bottom of the table, and have lost 7 games as visitors, from 11 played. Only two of them were played at high altitude: a 2-1 victory of Huancayo (right at the beginning of the season, when Huancayo was still just a shadow of the last year), and a 0-2 loss at Leon. But Sport Boys, besides being traditionally poor travelers, are also extremely poor when it comes to playing at altitude. The handicap is high indeed, but with the recent odds movements, this bet is definitely worth taking. GL!

Garcilaso (-1.5 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Jul 15, 2012

Olmedo - Barcelona

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

This bet might seem a long-shot at first sight, but I have some strong reasons for it. I know that Olmedo is the worst team in the league, rock bottom at the moment, but after some changes happened in the club last month, they have showed some signs of improvement, and as a proof we have their victories against LDU Quito and Cuenca (I know Quito were in a crisis, and Cuenca is not such a strong team anymore, but for a team that before that had 6 consecutive losses, this is a great improvement). They showed they can play and win, so now they just have to work harder to get out of the relegation zone. Meanwhile, Barcelona won the first stage, and that means they have booked a place in the final. They might also be still euphoric, and could have problems focusing in this first match. But the main reason for the bet is the fact that Barcelona has a long list of absences, most of them being regulars and key players: Erazo (22/2), Saucedo (13/0) and Gruezo (22/1) are all suspended, while Quinonez (11/3), Ayovi (11/3), Ibarra (4/0) and Luguercio (10/1) are injured. Midfielder Damian Diaz (21/1) will also miss this match. Under these circumstances, Barcelona will use a lot of reserves, and on paper, their squad looks quite weak. Olmedo improved recently, and I think they should be capable of taking at least one point here. GL!

Olmedo (+0.5 AH) @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST