Jul 13, 2011

Uruguay - Mexico

Copa America

Uruguay have been kind of disappointing so far, with only 2 points after their matches against Chile and Peru, so in this last round of the group stage, they are more or less in a must-win situation. They could indeed qualify from the third place, but it's way to risky to play it like that, and since they are facing the only team with zero points after 2 rounds, I'm sure they'll go for the kill. Uruguay has huge quality up-front, and even though they haven't been anything special so far, I think it's time they start showing some skills. Extra-motivation for them could be that a win here will also very likely see them winning the group, as Chile and Peru have a tough match (I expect a draw there), so a two-goal win over Mexico should be enough. The Mexicans have lived up to their 'expectations', and haven't been able to take a single point from Chile and Peru. The lack of experience from within their ranks had a major impact on the team, as the players simply looked unable to cope with their more prestigious opponents. And so far they haven't had to deal with Suarez, Forlan or Cavanni. Should be a big motivation for Uruguay here, and I expect them to go for the kill. GL!

Uruguay (-0.75 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10
Result: 1-0, HALF WON

Jul 12, 2011

Argentina - Costa Rica

Copa America

I stood away from Argentina so far, and my original plan was to do so for the entire tournament. But honestly, I don't see them failing again against this young Costa Rica team. Yes, they've let down their supporters in the first two games, against Bolivia (1-1) and Colombia (0-0, but they could have easily lost), and they are looking far from being a team. No tactical plans, no ideas, they are just relying on Messi to spark something... but Messi is a big zero whenever he plays for the national team (probably because Xavi and Iniesta are no longer behind him, and Mascherano and the others don't have the same effect). But... they are in a very fragile position now, with just 2 points, so a win here is a must, otherwise the qualification to the quarter-finals will be out of their hands, and pretty much impossible to obtain. And we can't say Costa Rica is more of a team either. A lot of young players, from the local league, and despite their huge surprise win against Bolivia (also facilitated by a retarded performance from the Bolivians, along 2 red cards), I don't see them standing a chance against the hosts of the tournament (who could also get some help from the referees, if need be). And if you compare some of the players, like Costa, Calvo and Duarte (Costa Rican defenders) with Tevez, Aguero and Lavezzi, the outcome should be pretty obvious. Let's hope logic will prevail this time. GL!

Argentina (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 3/10
Result: 3-0, WON