Paraguay - Venezuela

Copa America

At first I said I will skip both semi-finals of the Copa America, but the odds on Paraguay are quite nice, and I definitely think it's worth a shot on them. Can't say I really like Paraguay, but Venezuela I like even less. I consider the Vinotinto team as the luckiest in this competition. Scored 2 goals in the last minutes to equalize Paraguay in the group stage, and had imense luck in the qarters against Chile, as they had some serious problems to hold Chile's offense at bay, but they managed to clear the ball off the line three times, while Chile also hit the post two times. Their luck is surely bound to end, and Paraguay already proved they can put a lot of problems to them, and if they will have 3-1 again today, I seriously doubt they will lose focus like in the group match. Against Brazil, Paraguay made a quiet match, didn't really threaten the opposition's goalkeeper, and only qualified at penalties, after Brazil missed all 4 shots. But today everything should be different, with Venezuela defending, and Paraguay looking for the goal. As I said, Paraguay showed in their previous match they are the better team, and since this is a semi-final, their focus should be at maximum. GL!

Paraguay (-0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Chile - Venezuela

Copa America

I see some nice value here. First of all, the current odds are around 0.10 higher than the opening ones for a Chile win. Then, I can only imagine the odds if these teams would have met in the first match of the group stage, and I see them as something around 1.40. The fact is that Venezuela indeed managed to surprise a lot of people by being one of the first teams to qualify into the quarter finals. But I don't see them as being anything special. Played a solid defense against Brazil, snatched a win against Ecuador (one of the poorest teams in South America, in my opinion), and then miraculously drew level with Paraguay, scoring 2 goals in the last three minutes. Against Chile, I expect them to play defensively once again, but I doubt they'll be as successful as they were against Brazil. Chile plays more organized, and more team-like, then Brazil, and they are able to break any defense. They won 2/3 matches in the group, with the minimum difference, and maybe could have won even against Uruguay, as they were the better team for much of the game. The only problem for them is the lack of top class strikers (Suazo couldn't score if his life depended on it), but they have some players than could easily be the deciding factor by themselves, like Alexis Sanchez. Venezuela's nice trip in Copa America should come to an end here, as Chile needs to step up a gear, and confirm their status as title favorites. GL!

Chile (-0.5 AH) @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Argentina - Uruguay

Copa America

Don't think the odds will change too much anymore for this match, and even though the odds on the handicap have dropped, I still find this bet as being a very solid one. Argentina didn't show anything at all in the group stage, thus the draws with Bolivia and Colombia (in a match that they could have easily lost, the Colombians missing some very clear chances). The only good match for them was in the last round, 3-0 with Costa Rica, but keep in mind that the Central Americans were using their U-23 squad. The difference in class was huge, so it was really a no-sweat win for the hosts. But now, things will be totally different. Uruguay is one of the best teams in South America (best performance at last year's World Cup, where they took 4th place), and are a team that can beat anyone in their day. It's true, they also weren't at the top of their game in the group, but I expect them to raise their profile a bit now. The main problem for them was the finishing... had a ton of chances against Mexico, but only managed to convert one. But the attack can only get better, as they have pure quality players up-front, and they can deliver when they need it. Argentina honestly doesn't scare anyone anymore, and this is more like a bet against them, rather than a bet on Uruguay. This match has some nice chances for a surprise, as I expect Uruguay to qualify for the semi-finals, but I'm taking the safe road, and taking this +1 handicap. GL!

Uruguay (+1 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 1-1, WON

Uruguay - Mexico

Copa America

Uruguay have been kind of disappointing so far, with only 2 points after their matches against Chile and Peru, so in this last round of the group stage, they are more or less in a must-win situation. They could indeed qualify from the third place, but it's way to risky to play it like that, and since they are facing the only team with zero points after 2 rounds, I'm sure they'll go for the kill. Uruguay has huge quality up-front, and even though they haven't been anything special so far, I think it's time they start showing some skills. Extra-motivation for them could be that a win here will also very likely see them winning the group, as Chile and Peru have a tough match (I expect a draw there), so a two-goal win over Mexico should be enough. The Mexicans have lived up to their 'expectations', and haven't been able to take a single point from Chile and Peru. The lack of experience from within their ranks had a major impact on the team, as the players simply looked unable to cope with their more prestigious opponents. And so far they haven't had to deal with Suarez, Forlan or Cavanni. Should be a big motivation for Uruguay here, and I expect them to go for the kill. GL!

Uruguay (-0.75 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10

Result: 1-0, HALF WON

Argentina - Costa Rica

Copa America

I stood away from Argentina so far, and my original plan was to do so for the entire tournament. But honestly, I don't see them failing again against this young Costa Rica team. Yes, they've let down their supporters in the first two games, against Bolivia (1-1) and Colombia (0-0, but they could have easily lost), and they are looking far from being a team. No tactical plans, no ideas, they are just relying on Messi to spark something... but Messi is a big zero whenever he plays for the national team (probably because Xavi and Iniesta are no longer behind him, and Mascherano and the others don't have the same effect). But... they are in a very fragile position now, with just 2 points, so a win here is a must, otherwise the qualification to the quarter-finals will be out of their hands, and pretty much impossible to obtain. And we can't say Costa Rica is more of a team either. A lot of young players, from the local league, and despite their huge surprise win against Bolivia (also facilitated by a retarded performance from the Bolivians, along 2 red cards), I don't see them standing a chance against the hosts of the tournament (who could also get some help from the referees, if need be). And if you compare some of the players, like Costa, Calvo and Duarte (Costa Rican defenders) with Tevez, Aguero and Lavezzi, the outcome should be pretty obvious. Let's hope logic will prevail this time. GL!

Argentina (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Peru - Mexico

Copa America

Can't believe these odds, and even more surprising is that they're not falling at all. Odds on Chile against the Mexicans went from 2.20 to 1.40, but there seems to be little movement here. Not saying that Peru should be as big a favorite as Chile was, but still, I see anything above 1.80 as pure value. Mexico is forced to use their Olympic U-23 squad, with only 5 senior players, and if there is anyone worth mentioning, that is Gio dos Santos. And that's it! All the other players from their squad are from the local league, and neither of them has a worth-mentioning name or history. They didn't play too bad against Chile, but I mainly blame it on the Chileans underestimation of the young Mexican team. I don't expect the same issue with Peru... they are aware of their lowly status in South America, so they take each match with determination. That is their main weapon, as well as a very careful and organized play, leaving few spaces for their opponents, and that is how they snatched that point from Uruguay. So I expect this match against Mexico to be a rather tight and dull affair, but Peru should come out on top at the end. Even if they don't, I just can't imagine losing, so this DNB bet is perfect. GL!

Peru DNB @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Uruguay - Chile

Copa America

The odds on the overs are probably greatly influenced by the poor display of football that we had so far in the tournament. From the 7 matches that were played so far, only 1 ended with over 2.5 goals, and only in 3 of them were at least two goals scored. So this probably had a big impact on the bettors and the bookies, who are choosing caution for this types of bets. But still, that I don't see a big relation between the previous matches and the next ones, and since here we have 2 naturally overish teams, I'm going with goals. And there are some good signs here, as both Uruguay and Chile conceded in the first round, and did so against some rather poor opponents, offensive-wise. And if they allowed goals from Peru or Mexico, teams that aim their main focus on defense and organized play, I can only expect that they will also concede against each other. We have some big players responsible for goals here, and I expect them to be enough for at least one goal apiece. Forlan, Suarez, Cavani, Sanchez... hard to see them not scoring, especially since this match could prove crucial. Both teams will probably qualify with ease (as I don't expect Mexico to get more than 1 point in this group), and whoever wins this match will also probably win the group (Chile will make 6 points, while Uruguay can make 4 points and will play against Mexico in the last round). So caution is pretty much useless here, and both teams should go for the win. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

Bolivia - Costa Rica

Copa America

Ok, odds have been moving like crazy, up and down, and I doubt the current price will be available for too long, so let's take it now, as it surely has value if we considered it was down all the way to 1.76 yesterday on Sunday morning. Can't explain why the odds have gone up so much. Bolivia left a very good impression after their debut, in which they held Argentina to a 1-1 draw, after taking the lead and only being equalized by a superb effort from Aguero. They didn't impress (as it was Argentina who disappointed), but they looked quite ok against a bigger opponent, and with 1 point already in their pockets, 3 more against Costa Rica will assure their qualification to the next stage. Costa Rica, as we all know, are using a very experimental team, with 99% of the players performing in the local league, and 18 out of the 23 squad belonging to the U-23 team. They didn't pull any trees in their first match. In fact, they were quite awful... harmless in attack, and very vulnerable in defense, and the only reason why the match ended just 0-1 was because the Colombians treated the second half like a friendly match, and weren't even trying to score another one. This Costa Rica team is probably the poorest in all the tournament, and I don't expect them to win any points. The Bolivian team has a lot of players from Oriente Petrolero, and that's a good thing, as they know each other very well and know how to play like a team, so I expect them to pile on Costa Rica's misery. GL!

Bolivia (-0.5 AH) @ 2.01, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Brazil - Venezuela

Copa America

I expect a big flop for Brazil in this Copa America. I really don't find their squad too impressive, and I don't expect them to go very far in the competition. They will of course qualify easily from the group, as they have some relatively easy opponents (don't see Venezuela or Ecuador able to pose some problems to them). And since their period of 'Jogo Bonito' is long gone, their matches will most likely be some low-scoring affairs, especially if we look at their squad. Most midfielders are defensive minded (Leiva, Sandro, Elias), with just Elano, Jadson and Paulo Henrique playing more offensively, but they surely won't be on the field at the same time, and Elano/Jadson aren't world class players able to decide a match by themselves, while Ganso is still pretty young. Pato, Neymar Robinho and Fred are the strikers, but again, nothing impressive there. Venezuela aren't an impressive team, and offensive-wise, they can't pose many problems to the Brazilians, so I expect them to try and play it safe in defense, crowding their own area. A narrow one/two goals loss will still be a good result, as snatching some points against Paraguay or Ecuador seems more realistic, so they have to watch their goal difference. Brazil also won't push too hard for a huge victory, and I don't really expect a bigger result than 3-0. GL!

under 3.25 goals @ 1.91, 3/10

Result: 0-0, WON