Venezuela - Paraguay

World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers

Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!

Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Paraguay - Venezuela

Copa America

At first I said I will skip both semi-finals of the Copa America, but the odds on Paraguay are quite nice, and I definitely think it's worth a shot on them. Can't say I really like Paraguay, but Venezuela I like even less. I consider the Vinotinto team as the luckiest in this competition. Scored 2 goals in the last minutes to equalize Paraguay in the group stage, and had imense luck in the qarters against Chile, as they had some serious problems to hold Chile's offense at bay, but they managed to clear the ball off the line three times, while Chile also hit the post two times. Their luck is surely bound to end, and Paraguay already proved they can put a lot of problems to them, and if they will have 3-1 again today, I seriously doubt they will lose focus like in the group match. Against Brazil, Paraguay made a quiet match, didn't really threaten the opposition's goalkeeper, and only qualified at penalties, after Brazil missed all 4 shots. But today everything should be different, with Venezuela defending, and Paraguay looking for the goal. As I said, Paraguay showed in their previous match they are the better team, and since this is a semi-final, their focus should be at maximum. GL!

Paraguay (-0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Chile - Venezuela

Copa America

I see some nice value here. First of all, the current odds are around 0.10 higher than the opening ones for a Chile win. Then, I can only imagine the odds if these teams would have met in the first match of the group stage, and I see them as something around 1.40. The fact is that Venezuela indeed managed to surprise a lot of people by being one of the first teams to qualify into the quarter finals. But I don't see them as being anything special. Played a solid defense against Brazil, snatched a win against Ecuador (one of the poorest teams in South America, in my opinion), and then miraculously drew level with Paraguay, scoring 2 goals in the last three minutes. Against Chile, I expect them to play defensively once again, but I doubt they'll be as successful as they were against Brazil. Chile plays more organized, and more team-like, then Brazil, and they are able to break any defense. They won 2/3 matches in the group, with the minimum difference, and maybe could have won even against Uruguay, as they were the better team for much of the game. The only problem for them is the lack of top class strikers (Suazo couldn't score if his life depended on it), but they have some players than could easily be the deciding factor by themselves, like Alexis Sanchez. Venezuela's nice trip in Copa America should come to an end here, as Chile needs to step up a gear, and confirm their status as title favorites. GL!

Chile (-0.5 AH) @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Brazil - Venezuela

Copa America

I expect a big flop for Brazil in this Copa America. I really don't find their squad too impressive, and I don't expect them to go very far in the competition. They will of course qualify easily from the group, as they have some relatively easy opponents (don't see Venezuela or Ecuador able to pose some problems to them). And since their period of 'Jogo Bonito' is long gone, their matches will most likely be some low-scoring affairs, especially if we look at their squad. Most midfielders are defensive minded (Leiva, Sandro, Elias), with just Elano, Jadson and Paulo Henrique playing more offensively, but they surely won't be on the field at the same time, and Elano/Jadson aren't world class players able to decide a match by themselves, while Ganso is still pretty young. Pato, Neymar Robinho and Fred are the strikers, but again, nothing impressive there. Venezuela aren't an impressive team, and offensive-wise, they can't pose many problems to the Brazilians, so I expect them to try and play it safe in defense, crowding their own area. A narrow one/two goals loss will still be a good result, as snatching some points against Paraguay or Ecuador seems more realistic, so they have to watch their goal difference. Brazil also won't push too hard for a huge victory, and I don't really expect a bigger result than 3-0. GL!

under 3.25 goals @ 1.91, 3/10

Result: 0-0, WON

Mexico - Venezuela

International Friendly Match

Opposite directions for these 2 teams. Venezuela will be pretty much closing their preparation for Copa America, after already beating Guatemala 2-0, and losing 0-3 against world champions Spain. So, this will be their final match, the one after which coach Farias will decide who stays in the squad for Copa America, and who goes home. They currently have their best players in the squad, and even though there are no top class players, they still have a few that play in decent teams across Europe: Roberto Rosales (Twente), Juan Arango (Borussia Monchegladbach) and Nicolas Fedor (Getafe), just to name those will start today's match. On the other hand, this will be Mexico's first match as preparation for Copa America. You probably are already familiar with the rules under which they compete: the U-23 Olympic squad, plus 5 players older than 23. But even so, they will have some absences tonight, as defender Johnny Magallon (expected to be the team's leader) is injured, while dos Santos is with the Gold Cup squad (and I really doubt he will be kept in the Copa America too). Therefore, Mexico will be left with their youngsters, and a lot of debutants. Venezuela already have some rhythm after a few matches, and the odds are pretty much set wrong here. Don't think Venezuela will lose tonight. GL!

Venezuela (+0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 4/10

Result: 0-3, WON

Argentina - Venezuela

International Friendly Match

This will be the first match for these 2 National teams, as part of their Copa America preparation. Argentina is set as high favorite, but just a quick look at their roster would make anyone change it's mind. This is barely even a B team... more like a C team, with all the called-up players performing in the local league, and 3 quarters of these players are debutant with the national team. The 'most experienced' player in the squad is defender Luciano Monzon, from Boca, with 4 appearances for the team, and he is also the only one with more than 1 selection. Now, if we look from what teams they come from, we see big names: Boca, Independiente, Velez, etc. But with none of these teams impressing in the league (Boca and Independiente have actually been awful recently), and with the players likely tired and with their minds somewhere else, I don't think we'll see much determination, although this could be their chance to catch the squad for Copa America. Anyway, manager Batista will probably just want to see how his players act, not expecting any magic, since this will be the first time they perform together. Some last-minute injuries (Julian Velasquez - DF from Independiente, Franco Razzotti - MF from Velez, Martinez - FW from Velez) have also left them with just 19 players, and with only 2 pure strikers: Defederico and Mouche, both with poor performances recently. Venezuela will bring a more experienced team, with most of their regulars, and I expect them to give a decent fight. And I also expect it to be hard for Argentina to score, as they will lack any individual talents like Messi, Tevez, Aguero, etc, and group unity should also be flawed. GL!

Venezuela (+1.5 AH) @ 1.88, 4/10

Result: 4-1, LOST