Raja Casablanca - Atletico MG

FIFA Club World Cup 2013, Semi-final

Atletico MG (-1.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 3-1, LOST

Al Ahly - Corinthians

FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Semi-final

Copa Libertadores winners, Corinthians, are entering the competition in the semi-finals, and will play against African champions Al Ahly. From what I've seen so far, the Egyptians are rather poor, especially in defense. They were completely outrun by Hiroshima, several time, as the Japanese had at least 5-6 clear scoring chances, either alone with the keeper or alone with the empty net. And they missed all of them, so only their lack of efficiency allowed Al Ahly to progress. And in addition to a terrible defense, they didn't show much in offense either (although attack was not their objective). They played on counters, and they had a lot of success doing it, scoring 2 goals from 2 chances. Against Corinthians, we should see something else. The Brazilians are much more solid at the back, so I don't think they will be so easy to beat. And in attack, they have a lot quality, with top class players like Paolo Guerrero, and a very solid and well built team. And against a team that showed so many defensive holes, I think they should score at least a couple of goals. Odds dropped a lot since the market opened, but it's still worth taking this bet. GL!

Corinthians (-1 AH) @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 0-1, VOID

Kashiwa - Santos

FIFA Club World Cup, Semi-final

Great value here (despite of the odds dropping quite a bit since the market opened), as these odds are way above the limit, and under my calculations, anything above 1.40 for the Brazilians is pure value. Kashiwa pulled-off a great performance in this tournament, entering it as host club, and reaching the semi-finals. They may have also had some luck, as in the play-off they faced Auckland City and in the quarters faced a 'sleeping' Monterrey (really poor match from the Mexicans, as they could have easily lost the match in regular time - Kashiwa dominated much of the match), but despite their qualification, they also showed a lot of vulnerability. Both Auckland and Monterrey had a couple of chances to score, but only their lack of class prevented them from hurting the Japanese. And if there's one thing that Santos has, that's class, a lot more than Kashiwa. Plenty of talent and experience in their squad, and if we are to name a few players, we don't need to look very far: team-captain Edu Dracena, Elano and Renteria, all of them with European experience, and, of course, young super-talents Neymar and Paulo Henrique Ganso. And pretty much all of Santos's squad is at least one class above the Japanese squad. We'll probably see a full strength team tomorrow on the field (nothing confirmed, but there's no reason to risk a potential final with Barcelona by sending a weak team), and with such a low handicap I think it's worth to stake a bit more. GL!

Santos (-0.75 AH) @ 2.08, 5/10

Result: 1-3, WON

U de Chile - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana, Semi-final

I was on the over in the first leg too, and even though the match ended as 1-1, the bet was right, as the flow was very good, and there were a lot of missed goal-chances. So I'm going to repeat that bet. Vasco needs to attack from the start, in order to take back the away goal that U de Chile got in the first game. The Brazilians are going for this match full strength, with all their players, showing that they really want this title. And with their attack working great most of the times, I'm confident they will get at least a goal. From there, it will all be up to U de Chile to decide the game. They have been compared to Barcelona, and indeed, they're style of play is very good. Always going for goals, always looking to get the ball forward... so don't expect them to sit back and wait, despite the slight advantage they have due to their away goal. And also, Vasco's defensive line is far from being solid, so a couple of fast and well placed balls will really prove troublesome. I'm expecting a very entertaining match, and this time I think we'll see goals, as revenge for the missed chances from last weeks. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Vasco da Gama - U de Chile

Copa Sudamericana, Semi-finals

Probably the best, and the most offensive teams in the competition will face each other in Brazil, in what promises to be a cracking match. Vasco's coach Borges used reserve teams in the first legs so far, but those matches were played away from home. Not this time though, and Borges will send a full strength team, in order to try and clinch the qualification, so maybe he could rest a few players in the second leg. Diego Souza will miss the match for the Brazilians, but they have plenty of fire-power in their team, so I doubt that his absence should be an issue. Meanwhile, U de Chile is probably playing the best football in this edition of Copa Sudamericana, and many have compared their play to Barcelona. 14 goals scored, in 8 matches looks pretty nice, and gives us hopes for a goal-fest for this match, especially if we pair those numbers with Vasco's 17 goals scored in 6 games. The Chileans have rested their key players during the weekend, so they should all be fit, and I'm counting on their usual strategy of attacking, and trying to out-score their oponents. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Paraguay - Venezuela

Copa America

At first I said I will skip both semi-finals of the Copa America, but the odds on Paraguay are quite nice, and I definitely think it's worth a shot on them. Can't say I really like Paraguay, but Venezuela I like even less. I consider the Vinotinto team as the luckiest in this competition. Scored 2 goals in the last minutes to equalize Paraguay in the group stage, and had imense luck in the qarters against Chile, as they had some serious problems to hold Chile's offense at bay, but they managed to clear the ball off the line three times, while Chile also hit the post two times. Their luck is surely bound to end, and Paraguay already proved they can put a lot of problems to them, and if they will have 3-1 again today, I seriously doubt they will lose focus like in the group match. Against Brazil, Paraguay made a quiet match, didn't really threaten the opposition's goalkeeper, and only qualified at penalties, after Brazil missed all 4 shots. But today everything should be different, with Venezuela defending, and Paraguay looking for the goal. As I said, Paraguay showed in their previous match they are the better team, and since this is a semi-final, their focus should be at maximum. GL!

Paraguay (-0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Mexico - Honduras

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2011

In the quarter-finals, Mexico didn't deliver as expected, winning just 2-1, but I'm not going to lose my confidence in them. Guatemala can consider themselves fortunate to escape just with a 1-2 defeat. They scored early in the game, following a defensive mistake from Mexico, but after that goal, there was only one team on the field. Mexico dominated, managed to overturn the score and also missed several good chances to increase their lead. Menawhile, Honduras can also thank Lady Luck for this semi-final appearance. They weren't the better team in the quarters against Costa Rica, and had a lot of luck to qualify. First, Saborio missed a penalty in the second half, that would have given Costa Rica the lead. Then, there was a huge chance missed by Ticos in extra-time, before 2 players hit the crossbar in the following shoot-out, thus awarding Honduras a 4-2 penalty win. The handicap is finally lowered for Mexico, as was expected to be in the latter stages, and I don't think they will have any emotions to reach the final. They are simply a class better than all the other teams, and the worst case scenario that I can see is just a win by the minimum difference, but normally this should go down as an easy 2-0 or 3-0. GL!

Mexico (-1.25 AH) @ 1.82, 4/10

Result: 0-0, LOST