May 26, 2013

Juventud - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Another bet from Uruguay, as we have another match that promises a lot. Both teams are still in the fight for glory, even though it's a different kind of glory. Penarol are knee-deep in the title race, 3 points behind Clausura league-leaders Defensor, and one point above them in the Annual table (everything is important here: Penarol won Apertura so if they will also win Clausua they will be automatically crowned champions. If they lose Clausura, they will play in the semi-final with Defensor... if they win the annual table and the semi-final, they will be crowned champions). And for this game, they are putting everything on the line, as they have practiced with a very offensive line-up: two forwards (Zalayeta and Pacheco) and two quick wingers (Estoyanoff and Nunez), plus a move in the defensive line, where offensive minded Aguirregaray will play as a right wing-back. A more offensive formation than usual, as they will be going all out for the title. Juventud, on the other hand, are going for their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, which will be an incredible feat for them. They are tied on points with Wanderers and Fenix for the 6th place, the last that provides continental qualification. And besides this, which should provide extra motivation, they also have a solid home record, with 4-1-2, and just a couple of weeks ago they managed to beat Nacional by 2-0. They certainly won't roll over, and they should try and exploit the spaces that Penarol will leave behind. So I'm confident that we will see several goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 1-5, WON

Sporting Cristal - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Divsion, Descentralizado

This should be a match that promises a lot, as we will see in action two of the most offensive teams in the league. League leaders Sporting Cristal seem to be in a league of their own, as they have the best attack so far, with 10 goals scored more than any other team. And they are the strongest when they play at home, where they scored 23 goals. They are still undefeated at home, and they also have a positive record when it comes to under/over, with 8 of their last 10 games ending with at least 3 goals. On the other side of the field, we will have a surprising Sport Huancayo, who have been performing above expectations and find themselves on 4th place, with 9 points snatched in away games (a very good record for a traditional 'home' team). And I'm confident that we should be seeing some goals here, as Huancayo have the second best offense in the league, with 24 goals scored, but also one of the fragile defenses, with 23 conceded (only 3 teams have a worse record). Huancayo have failed to score in only 2 games so far. Cristal will be at full strength, without any absences of injuries, and they will also repeat the line-up that trashed San Martin last week by 3-0. Goals should be plenty. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON

Racing - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Another interesting match in Uruguay, where Racing will be facing Liverpool. The hosts still have a remote chance of qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana, but with low chances of that happening, they will probably play for their second pressing issue: saving the team from relegation. The chances of that happening are also low (Progreso needs to win both remaining games, while Racing needs to lose them), but I'm expecting them to go out and clinch it today.So even if it won't be much, there is still something to play for here. Meanwhile, in Liverpool's camp, things are not even close to being calm or good. They don't have any pressing needs right now, as they are safe from relegation and without any chances of getting to a continental competition. But instead of having a quiet end of the season, the fans are out to get coach Muller's head. Besides the very poor results (only 2 wins in the last 10 games, and just 3 wins throughout the competition), team-captain and fan-favorite Macchi has been left out of the team, due to a coach decision. The directors are backing the coach, so the fans are pretty much against the entire management of the team, and have repeatedly protested against them. Word is, even some players are against the coach, and would like to see him go. So without results, amidst an internal tempest and without anything at stake, Racing should take the points here, especially since they've recorded quite some nice results recently: draws at Nacional and El Tanque, and an amazing victory against Penarol, coming from 0-1 down to win it 2-1. GL!

Racing (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10 
Result: 0-0, LOST