May 4, 2012

Deportivo Quito - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Deportivo's home record regarding conceded goals might put people off this bet, since the Ecuadorians are yet to concede a goal in Quito in the Copa Libertadores. However, this should change tonight, as they will play against a totally different team than what they experienced so far (Chivas played with several reserves, while Defensor and Velez are known for not being ultra-offensive teams). U de Chile come into this match in a great moment, as they have won their last 11 consecutive matches in all competitions, also scoring 31 goals in the process. They really enjoy playing offensive football, and when they attack, they usually do it with 5 or 6 men. Also, they can be deadly on counter attacks. Deportivo of course has the advantage here, mostly because of the high altitude from Quito, with which the Chileans aren't very accustomed, and they also like to play offensive football at home. Alustiza is placed second in the goalscorer standings, so for sure he'll be the man to watch tonight for Deportivo. U de Chile need to make a strong match, as they can't rely solely on the return leg (and if Deportivo wins tonight, they have already proved they know how to defend as well), so an away goal should be crucial. I expect both teams to score. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.81, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON

May 2, 2012

Atletico Nacional - Velez

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

This match should be a very entertaining show, so I'm really surprised to see such a low goal line (I was honestly expecting to see a high 2.75, with a fair 2.5), therefore I can't see past this match, seeing some nice value in this bet. Atletico Nacional blitzed through their first matches in the group stage, making them appear like strong favorites to go all the way. Their attacking power can not be disputed, as they have the most goals scored in this competition so far (16, without playing against Bolivian or Peruvian teams). However, they didn't win their group because the defense began to fail in the last matches, allowing 8 goals against them (6 of them were only from Godoy, although they did manage to also score 6 against the Argentinians). Normally, Velez should be much better than Godoy, and we can see that even from the standings, so they should have more chances to win against Atletico. However, to do that in Colombia won't be that easy, and the hosts know they need a solid win in order to keep their chances to qualify to the next round. However, their defensive issues should provide Velez with plenty of chances to snatch at least a goal. Poor defense and an awesome attack, against a solid team that knows how to exploit spaces, can mean only one thing: goals! GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 5/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

May 1, 2012

Leon de Huanuco - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Quite a low line for a type of match that usually provides goals. Real Garcilaso is without a doubt the surprise package of this season's Primera Division, sitting on second place after 10 rounds, only 1 point behind the leaders. And this is a great achievement for a team that promoted last season, after winning the Copa Peru, even though a great feat in this great run of form is the high altitude from their home ground, located in Cuzco. But not only that, as they also pulled off some nice results on some very difficult grounds (2-0 at Huancayo, 2-2 at Inti Gas, 0-0 at Juan Aurich). Now, this match will once again be played at high altitude, in Huanuco, and most of the times, when 2 teams used to the high altitude meet, there are several goals. Garcilaso is undefeated this year when playing 'high', but Leon are no pushovers, and are definitely better than Huancayo and Inti Gas. They also have an average of 2 goals scored/match at home, but with Garcilaso most probably coming to play football, not to put 10 men behind the ball, this line should be covered quite easily. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON