Oct 27, 2011

El Nacional - Manta

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

El Nacional will probably the remaining matches of the season without the pressure of an objective. They have a good position in both the Segunda Etapa and the Aggregate tables, but not good enough to challenge for honors at the end of the season (10 points behind LDU in the aggregate table, so hoping to catch the Libertadores spot from them is pretty far fetched). That is why they can take on their matches with ease, and focus on the show, not on the points. And for tonight, 3 forwards are announced in the starting line-up: Kaviedes, Preciado and Anangono (team's top scorer, 3rd place in the goalscoring standings). And with El Nacional having one of the most efficient offenses in the league (22 goals scored so far, second only to Deportivo Quito), but also one of the most fragile defenses (22 conceded, 3rd worst defense), I'm counting on some goals here. Manta should also come out to play, as their league position isn't great (just 4 points above the relegation zone), and they probably know that going to El Nacional to defend a 0-0 is suicide. They haven't score a single goal as visitors yet, but this could be their chance, and I like this bet more than the handicap on El Nacional. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.73, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Oct 23, 2011

Deportivo Quito - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Big chances that this match will berepeated once more in December, as Emelec is already qualified for the final, and Deportivo are in a solid position to qualify also. Of course, there are many rounds left, with many points in play, and Deportivo showed they aren't unbeatable (only won 1 game from the last 5), as they lost earlier in the week at LDU, 0-1. Emelec had their ups and downs this season, but lately they seem to have found some form and confidence, as they have 3 wins in a row. However, I expect them to take on this match in anticipation for the final (probably as they took on their 3 previous matches ), so I'm assuming another low-scoring game will take place. In support of this, we can look at their matches from earlier this season, as all 3 of them finished 0-0 (which is kind of a paradox, as these are the temas with the best attacks in the league). Also, from their last 10 mutual matches, only one had more than 2 goals, while 7 of them had just one goal, or none. Don't think we'll be seeing many goals this time either, so let's try an under once more in an Ecuadorian derby. GL!

under 2.25 goals @ 1.90, 3/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-WON

Sport Huancayo - Union Comercio

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Sport Huancayo is another team hopeful of taking the 3rd place, and maybe even reach Juan Aurich, for a place in the final, since they are only 6 points behind them. Last weeks win over Leon provided a massive boost for Huancayo, as they now have Leon in sight, being just 1 point behind them, but to really have chances of reaching them, they must make use of their greatest weapon: their home ground. 7 games won, from 12 played, won their last 3 home matches (including 2 high profile victories with Universitario and Leon), and are one of the most offensive teams when playing at the high altitude of Huancayo. Union Comercio look safe at the moment, 8 points ahead of the relegation zone. However, their dreadful away form should be a worry for them, as they are still without a single win as visitors, and nder this circumstances, I just don't see them snatching their first victory on such a difficult ground as the one from Huancayo. GL!

Huancayo (-1.25 AH) @ 2.13, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON