Sep 24, 2013

Nacional - River

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

A very good match should be awaiting us today in Uruguay, as Nacional and River will face-off for one of the top positions. Danubio are leaders, after winning yesterday against Penarol, but that could change today, as River could leapfrog them if they win. With a win for Nacional, they will tie River on second place. Whatever happens, this season promises to be very interesting. And for this match in particular, the goals should flow freely. Both teams have very good offensive abilities, with Nacional having the quality with Gonzalez, Alonso and Porta, while River has the form with Casas (scored 2 goals in 4 games) and Santos (2 goals in 4 games), along with winger Techera, who also scored 2 goals. Very offensive line-ups for both teams, and for River this can be seen  by looking at the standings, having score 14 goals and conceding 6 after 4 rounds. Also, in the last 10 mutual games between them, there were 47 goals scored (an average of almost 5 goals per match), and 8 of those games ended with a minimum of 3 goals. I'll go with the same trend, as both teams look good enough to provide us a thrilling encounter. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 2.13, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Sep 23, 2013

Barcelona - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Once again we have here some very disproportionate odds. These two teams met last week, and in what can be deemed as a surprise, Barcelona won in Quito by 2-1, so Deportivo's thirst for revenge should be fresh. We all know about their problems, financially and managerially, but that hasn't stopped them from playing well above expectations, as they find themselves on 6th place with 17 points (6 more than Barcelona). They were in quite a nice form, up until 4 matches ago, when they lost inexplicably at Cuenca 1-6. After that they drew 0-0 in the Clasico of Quito, against LDU, lost a match where the main players went on strike and lost with Barcelona. But despite their troubles, the players want to recover their form, and finish the season as well as possible. And Barcelona are not a team that can be considered 1.50 favorites. They are simply poor this season, and have only won 2 games from the 11 that they've played (count here a couple of scoreless draws with bottom teams like Quevedo or Macara). Also keep in mind that these clashes are usually very tight affairs, ending in either one-goal wins or draws, so I think that worst case scenario here, we'll have a half-lost. But Quito are much better than that (and better than Barcelona, for that matter), and I'm confident they'll take some points tonight. GL!

Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST

Sep 22, 2013

General Diaz - Sportivo Luqueno

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

I've been wrong many times about Diaz, but they just kept on going, and are having a season of a lifetime. They are one of the two teams that are still undefeated, halfway through the season, and if they can keep this going, they have some real chances of taking a place in a continental competition. They are in awesome for, since they are undefeated - as I mentioned previously - and they also have 4 consecutive wins. The only games that they weren't able to win were against the league giants: Cerro Porteno and Libertad, and they also drew against a surprising Capiata (3rd place). Luqueno rose quickly in the table following two consecutive wins, and are now on 5th place. But I won't pay too much attention to that, because they had some easy games recently. Their only wins so far came against rock-bottom Cerro PF, against traditionally poor Rubio Nu and against Sol de America. Hard to name any of those teams 'impressive'. And if we take those last two wins away from them, Luqueno would have just 5 points and would be sitting right next to Cerro PF. And in all honesty, that is pretty much their real value. I'm not really comfortable betting on Diaz, a small team that enjoys a fantastic run, because these runs are bound to end sooner or later, but this here is more like a bet against Luqueno, one of the poorest teams in the league, and the only reason why they are not in the relegation area, is because there are two worse teams. GL!

Diaz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON

Inti Gas - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Let's start with the obvious here: Jose Galvez is the poorest team in this group, and one of the weakest teams in the league. They are rock-bottom, on 8th place, 7 points behind San Martin, and they also have a horrendous away record, having lost 13 from the 16 games they've played, with an away goal difference of 14-39. And today's match will be played at high altitude, so there's an extra-factor against them. Inti Gas are solid and stable, as they sit on second place, 8 points behind the leaders. And while their chances of going in the final are very slim, they could very well qualify for a continental cup, so that should keep them motivated. Now, there is also an extra reason that I'm taking a rather high handicap. Jose Galvez were supposed to travel to Ayacucho yesterday, and they did, but due to some meteorological problems, their flight was returned to Lima. This means that they'll travel once again by plane today, two and a half hours before the kick-off time, and as soon as they reach Ayacucho, they will travel to the stadium by bus. Very little time of recovery, and they should also fully feel the effects of the altitude. GL!

Inti Gas (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST