Jun 16, 2012

San Martin - FBC Melgar

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Ever since San Martin has returned to the Primera Division, they've had nice results, managing to beat a lot of teams considered superior. Now, after this break, they also had more time to prepare, and I expect their form to grow. In from of them, they'll have a surprising Melgar, who are sitting comfortably in the top half of the table. However, most of those results came at home (they play at high altitude), while away from home they are still the same traditionally poor team, with a record of 1-2-5. They shouldn't pose too many problems to a team as solid as San Martin, who have already beaten Cristal, trashed Juan Aurich and drew with Cesar Vallejo, all of them being far more superior teams than Melgar. Odds are set quite right here, although I expected San Martin to be a bit more favorites, so the line of -1 is more than achievable. GL!

San Martin (-1 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

The Peruvian league is once again underway, with the second part of the league, and there are some potential nice bets there. First match of the round also looks very interesting, as surprise package Real Garcilaso will face Sport Huancayo at home. The newly promoted Garcilaso have been outstanding so far, sitting on second place with an incredible home record: 7-0-0, goal difference 14-2. The high altitude helps them a lot, but even away from home, they have only lost 2 out of 8 matches, so we can't take any credit away from them. Huancayo has been poor throughout the season, being a totally different team from last year. Their defensive line is a lot weaker, as they have one of the poorest defenses in the league. But they are used to play at high altitude, so I expect an edgy game today, with straight-forward play. Garcilaso won the first match in Huancayo, so the visitors should also be out for revenge, but with their defensive line, I can't see them conceding anything less than 2 goals. Usually, matches between high altitude teams end with lots of goals, so let's hope they will keep up this trend. Recent odds movements give us quite some nice value with this bet. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.30, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Jun 14, 2012

Emelec - Barcelona

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Big match in Ecuador tonight. Besides being a Clasico of Ecuador, it is also a match that could decide who takes it's place in the final, as both teams are tied on second place with 31 points, 1 point behind surprising leaders LDU Loja. And both are in good form coming into this match, and they should also be fit, as the league had a 2 weeks-break. Form-wise, Barcelona recovered after a very poor run of form, when they played twice against LDU Quito, twice against Deportivo Quito and one against Emelec, failing to win any of those matches. And those are the matches that count, because even though they recovered their form, they did so against teams like Macara, Manta or Olmedo. Meanwhile, Emelec comes into this game from a 3-0 spanking of LDU Quito, so they proved they can play well against the big teams, and they also look like a much more solid team than Barcelona. Also, today's visitors will have a host of absences: midfielders Oyola (4/1) and Amaya (8/1), laterals Ibarra (2/0) and Cruz (6/0), and forwards Michael Jackson (11/3). Some of them are quite important players for Barcelona, so I'll have to give the edge to Emelec. GL!

Emelec (-0.25 AH) @ 1.95, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Jun 13, 2012

Olimpia - Libertad

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

The Paraguayan league returns to action this mid-week, and a Clasico will for sure catch everyone's eyes. Olimpia and Libertad face each other in a match that could decide the title. Olimpia can take one more step towards the title if they win, while Libertad can get right back into the fight, and could also leave the door wide open for Cerro Porteno, who are 3 points behind the leaders. I did mention in several previous occasions that Olimpia kicked-out some players, due to indiscipline, and those players were quite key pieces in their formation: Marin, Orteman and Romero. And ever since that happened, they have suffered visibly in their last-gasp win over Rubio Nu and their draw with Nacional (they have only won 1 from their last 4 matches). Libertad is one of the most solid teams from Paraguay, and they aren't in a better position simply because Copa Libertadores took it's toll on their league performances. But now they should go back to normal, as they are in quite good form, as they proved last week when they won 2-1 at Nacional. Olimpia could struggle one more time, against a traditionally strong opponent (they have beaten Libertad only once in their last 10 official games), so this bet looks like a very good one. GL!

Libertad (+0.25 AH) @ 1.78, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST