May 18, 2011

Cerro Porteno - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Simple reasons for this bet, so I won't make this too long. Cerro Porteno has to play tonight against Guarani, in a postponed match, while on Thursday night they will have to play the return-leg of their Copa Libertadores clash against Jaguares Chiapas. This is rather unusual for them, as the Paraguayan Federation usually cares about it's teams that participate in continental cups, but with Copa America just around the corner, they probably ran out of available days to reschedule this match. So, in short: last week, Cerro used their regular players for the match against Jaguare (obviously), and used a team of mostly youngsters to face General Caballero in the league (a match which they lost, 0-1, against the worst team of the league). Same scenarios will apply this week... regulars will face Jaguares, while the same team that lost in the weekend will play against Guarani. So, a great chance for Guarani to win on Cerro's home ground, and to get some points in hope of finishing as high as possible, and maybe snatch the last ticket for the 2012 Copa Libertadores. And since Guarani is a much better team than General Caballero (who already won against Cerro's youngster team), the away win looks pretty certain here. GL!

Guarani DNB @ 1.76, 5/10
Result: 0-0, VOID

Inti Gas - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Good opportunity for Inti Gas to make a solid performance at home, as usual, and to take 3 points that will help them remain in the top half of the table. They will use more or less the same team that lost at Juan Aurich during the weekend, as they will once again have a few unavailable players: Moisela is suspended, while Landauri is injured, but as I said before, just Landauri can be considered an important absence, as he is the only one of the above-mentioned players that has featured regularly. Meanwhile, CNI will also have some absences, but they are quite important for the team: defender Portilla (12 matches played so far) is suspended, while midfielders Noronha (11 matches) and Barrena (10 matches) are doubtful through injury, and it looks like they have slim chances of playing tonight. Moreover, there is also a high altitude in Ayacucho, and that usually helps the home team, especially against smaller teams that play in the lowlands, like CNI. In their 4 trips to Ayacucho, CNI has lost all the matches, with a goal difference of 1-11. Don't see it much different today, as I expect Inti Gas to win it comfortably and recover from the heavy beat-down suffered last Sunday. GL!

Inti Gas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON

May 16, 2011

Juan Aurich - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Up until this week, Juan Aurich were the most in-form team from Peru, being the only undefeated team of the league, and mounting a serious title challenge. But then, came the loss in the heights of Cuzco, at the hands of the league leaders, so now Aurich have to start all over again. Of course, one loss isn't the end of the world, as with a win tonight they could leapfrog Alianza (if they don't win their match), and would be just 2 points behind leaders Cienciano, and honestly, I don't see them keeping this form for the entire tournament. Inti Gas is respecting their status as a typical home team in Peru, where they also have the advantage of altitude. Therefore, they are undefeated at home, but also without a win when playing as visitors. And when you lose with a big difference at Alianza Atletico and Sport Boys (a team which Aurich won 5-0, as visitors), a trip to Chiclayo certainly doesn't sound too good. To make things worse, Inti Gas will also miss 5 players: Ricardo Perez, Rodrigo Ferreyra and Julio Landauri are injured, while Jose Cuero and Jose Moisela are suspended. Just Landauri is a key player for them, but Moisela and Cuero are pretty important as well, so it is certain they will feel their absences. GL!

Juan Aurich (-1 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10 
Result: 3-0, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

2010 finalists, Leon de Huanuco is showing slight signs of recovery, at least at home, despite the fact that they are still very far away from the form showed last year. But, with 2 consecutive wins at home, and Copa Libertadores way behind them, they can begin to hope again for a top-half finish, maybe even for a qualification for a continental cup, as the points differences aren't too high. Full team available for them, and I'm sure they are looking forward to add 3 more points to their tally, against the weakest team of the league. Alianza Atletico has only managed to win a single game as visitors, and have scored just one goal in 6 matches. And lately, they can't seem to win a match anywhere, since they haven't won for 5 rounds (since they released 5 players for beink drunk early in the morning in a club). And let's not forget about the altitude factor, as Alianza Atletico is from Sullana, a coastal city, and they usually find it hard when playing at high altitude (last year, they lost both matches in Huanuco, while this year they were trashed 4-0 by Cienciano). Was tempted to take the -0.75 handicap, but with my recent luck, it'll just end with a half won probably, so I just going for a simple home win, despite the low odds. GL!

Leon @ 1.60, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON

May 15, 2011

General Caballero - Cerro Porteno

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

General Caballero, last place in the standings, will face tonight Paraguay's best hope of reaching the semi-final of Libertadores, as Libertad has a real mountain to climb following their heavy 0-3 defeat at Velez. Back to Cerro... they drew 1-1 in Mexico, and have a good chance of sealing their qualification next week, so once again, they will give rest to all their important players, all who have played against Jaguares on Thursday. And having looked at the players called-up for this match, I barely see some familiar names, as most of them are youngsters from the clubs' youth division. General Caballero have been poor indeed so far, but I expect some extra-motivation this time. They need the points to fight against relegation, and they could also record a victory over one of the best Paraguayan teams. And since Cerro is using a lot of youngsters, General Caballero knows they have some nice chances of a high-profile win, and they should give their best to get it. GL!

General Caballero (+0.25 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON