Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura
My 'favorite' team, Liverpool Montevideo, are playing as visitors in Parque Central, against Nacional, and this is another good opportunity for a good bet. I did mention previously about their very short squad, and nothing has changed since them. However, they do have a very successful campaign in Copa Sudamericana, where they have a chance to qualify for the quarter-finals, so they are definitely giving priority to that. That's why today they will be resting a few players, including forward Carlos Nunez (5/10) and defenders Mauricio Felipe (5/0) and Barboza (5/0). They are playing too well even in normal circumstances, so today I can only expect them to struggle even more. Meanwhile, Nacional has apparently found the correct formula, with an offensive style of play (they are using a 4-3-3 tactic), and also with the right players in the right positions (the forwards, for exmple, have very good speed, and can exploit any defensive gaps). They only failed to win 2 games in this Apertura: a 2-2 draw against Defensor Sporting, and a 1-2 loss at Cerro, on a very poor pitch that prevented them from playing their normal game. Nacional won their last 3 games against Liverpool, and today it will be a good opportunity to add to that number. GL!
Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON
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Oct 20, 2012
Oct 17, 2012
Bolivia - Uruguay
World Cup 2014 Qualifiers
The line is quite low on this one, and I really expect a nice match, so we should easily see at least 2 goals here. Both teams need the points here, Bolivia in order to get closer to the qualification area, and Uruguay to make sure they remain on their position. Main advantage for the home team is the high altitude from La Paz (over 3500 meters), and for sure the Uruguayans will have problems coping with that, because they can't to the same thing the Peruvians did (make a team only with players used to playing at altitude). Bolivia will force the attack with an offensive trio (Martins, Mojica and Arce), and if they manage to put constant pressure on their oponents, the goal should come eventually, especially towards the end of the match when the air should run out. Meanwhile, Uruguay will use a slightly more defensive approach, with just Suarez and Forlan up-front, probably hoping for some counters or set pieces. Bolivia conceded in all of their home games, and failed to score only in one (against Chile). Also, last 3 matches played between these teams in the qualifications ended with lots of goals (Uruguay won at home 5-0 in 2007 and 4-2 last year, while Bolivia draw at home 2-2 in 2008), so I expect the same pattern today. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.81, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON
The line is quite low on this one, and I really expect a nice match, so we should easily see at least 2 goals here. Both teams need the points here, Bolivia in order to get closer to the qualification area, and Uruguay to make sure they remain on their position. Main advantage for the home team is the high altitude from La Paz (over 3500 meters), and for sure the Uruguayans will have problems coping with that, because they can't to the same thing the Peruvians did (make a team only with players used to playing at altitude). Bolivia will force the attack with an offensive trio (Martins, Mojica and Arce), and if they manage to put constant pressure on their oponents, the goal should come eventually, especially towards the end of the match when the air should run out. Meanwhile, Uruguay will use a slightly more defensive approach, with just Suarez and Forlan up-front, probably hoping for some counters or set pieces. Bolivia conceded in all of their home games, and failed to score only in one (against Chile). Also, last 3 matches played between these teams in the qualifications ended with lots of goals (Uruguay won at home 5-0 in 2007 and 4-2 last year, while Bolivia draw at home 2-2 in 2008), so I expect the same pattern today. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.81, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON
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