Dec 24, 2011

I would like to wish a Merry Christmas to everyone who supported this service in 2011! May everyone have a happy and joyful time, along with their family, friends and loved ones.

Dec 20, 2011

LDU Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Third place play-off

Last match of the year in South America, and while most teams are already either celebrating a successful season, either already on holiday making plans for 2012, LDU and El Nacional will fight their final battle for the Libertadores qualification. LDU comes after a very long season, and unfortunately for them, without much success, having not won the league title, while also losing in the Sudamericana final, against a superb U de Chile. So that means that this match is the 'make-or-break' moment of the year. They either win this, or they are out of the 2012 Libertadores, and of course, that is not an option for them. El Nacional reached the 4th spot in the aggregate table in extremis, having finished just with 2 points more than Barcelona. Still, they deserve that spot, as they have played well and consistently throughout the year. They come into this match with a 2-1 advantage from the first leg, but in that match LDU played with a 90% reserve team, due to their Sudamericana finals. But now, in the last match before the holidays, they will use the best they have, and will go for the win from the first minute of the match. It won't be a walk in the park, but LDU is the better team here, they are fully focused and determined to save their season, and also, they have won their last 7 matches against El Nacional, when playing in Casa Blanca. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Dec 19, 2011

Sol de America - Cerro Porteno

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Last round, everything will be settled today, and unfortunately for Cerro, they are not the favorites to win the title. They have to win their match first, but will also have to hope Olimpia fails to beat Rubio Nu. And I expect it to be difficult for Olimpia. Rubio Nu is also fighting to qualify for the Copa Sudamericana, for the first time in their history, and since they only need a draw to do so, they will battle hard to get that one point. Also, all throughout the week, there have been rumors that Cerro's president promised 200k $ for Rubio is they manage to hold Olimpia. So I expect a hard fought match there. And in this case, Cerro has it simple: score early, and wait for the good news. They did the same thing last week, with General Caballero, and it was a great match, with plenty of goals. Sol de America plays for nothing at the moment, so their minds could well be on holiday already, but even if they play focused, Cerro should be way too much for them. GL!

Cerro (-0.75 AH) @ 1.68, 3/10
Result: 2-2, LOST

Dec 18, 2011

Santos - Barcelona

FIFA Club World Cup, Final

Ever since this competition began, I had planned a bet on goals, and I was sure about this bet until a couple of days ago. Villa and Alexis's injuries should be quite a blow for Barcelona and it's offensive scheme, so now I'm really scared of this bet, especially since the value is long gone (over 3 @ 1.81 - which were the opening odds at Sbo - would have been a solid bet, but over 3.5 @ 1.97 now is a long way from being takeable). So the handicap looks better and better. Santos's defense was pretty tragic most of the times against Kashiwa, but only after Santos stopped attacking with a comfortable lead, and the Japanese had no other choice but to go all-in attack. The Brazilians are more than capable to score against Barcelona, as the long-shots are probably the best idea against the Spanish giants, and they showed they have some real skills when it comes to this (all 3 goals against Kashiwa were superb, and came from outside the area). And Valdes is not a top-class keeper that can consistently save his team. Counters are also looking good for Santos. And I don't expect Barcelona to look for a trashing here, so if they take the lead, they'll probably settle for their careful and boring passing game. The Libertadores champions shouldn't lose by more than 2 goals, and maybe they could even make a little surprise, since 2 years ago Estudiantes were pretty close to wining this trophy, also in front of Barcelona. GL!

Santos (+1.75 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10
Result: 0-4, LOST