Mar 23, 2012

Santos - Juan Aurich

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

This is pretty much a repeat of last week's bet, with the only difference being that this time Santos will play at home, and have a sky high handicap. I usually don't like playing these handicaps (as I always end up looking like an idiot when they don't deliver), but this time I just can't see how we won't have at least a void. The quality difference was clear in the first leg, despite Aurich taking an early lead. Santos controlled the match and scored 3 goals, without even getting into second gear, hardly breaking a sweat. Besides, they can't afford to mess around, as they are tied on points with Inter and the Strongest, so a fail today could complicate their situation. But since they've beaten Inter at home with 3-1, I see no reason why they would take pitty of Aurich. The Peruvians are already knocked-out of their group (theoretically, they still have chances to qualify, but will need to take 6 points from Inter and Santos, and that is close to impossible), so I doubt their will to play and make a good result. They will probably just try to defend for as long as possible, but Santos has tons of individually skilled players, that could break that defense. Not going with higher stakes here, as there is no value, but it's a bet that 99% can't fail.

Santos (-2 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 2-0, VOID

Mar 22, 2012

Vasco - Libertad

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Vasco has been a real rollercoaster so far: they lost at home to Nacional, they've let a 1-0 lead slip through their fingers in Paraguay, and they beat Alianza 3-2, after a very entertaining match in which they also missed 2 penalties. It is clear that quality wise they are the best team in the group, so their inability to top the group must be psychical. Today, however, the players really seem to be fired up, and will try a repeat of their performance from Paraguay, which normally should translate in a home win tonight. However, Libertad is not an easy team to beat, and they aren't the leaders for nothing. A point for them would be great, and would pretty much assure them of the top spot, but I don't think they'll focus 100% on defense. The Brazilian defense makes a lot of mistakes, so there will be a lot of spaces for Libertad to exploit, especially since I'm expecting Vasco to go out guns blazing, searching for the goal since the beginning. Very nice odds for the over, which has serious chances of delivering. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST

Mar 18, 2012

Sol de America - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Sol is one crazy team. They had a good start, but against some of the smaller teams, and when they finally went on to meet some of the real teams, we capitalized on the nice odds offered. I was expecting a set-back after 2 back to back defeats against Nacional and Libertad, but to my surprise, Sol bounced back and trashed Tacuary 6-2, as visitors. So I really don't know what to think of them, but today's game should be similar to the ones in which they lost, as Tacuary can also be considered one of the better teams of the league. However, since both teams are doing great offensively, I'd rather go for an over than for the handicap, as a high-scoring draw would just void it. Guarani also has a good record this season, and as far as overs go, they have a 100% rate (6 overs in 6 matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding 8, with only one match in which they kept a clean sheet). Sol also has a 100% rate when it comes to overs, as they scored 17 goals (only in one match they failed to score), while conceding 10. So really, both these teams are coming well into this match, showing great football, so I think we can't miss seeing a minimum of 3 goals here. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.71, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

This should be an interesting high-altitude duel. Real Garcilaso has been the surprise package of the Primera Division so far, and they seem to have the potential to keep it going, especially with the high altitude from Cuzco, the city where they are based (so yes, this will be a local derby). And when 2 teams that play at altitude meet, we usually have a lot of goals. Real had some nice results, and also plenty of goals this season, scoring 6 goals in 3 matches, two of them ending in over. Cienciano didn't have a bad start themselves, but losing at home last week means that today they will be out for vengeance, and an offensive plan is expected. And with 5 goals scored in 3 matches (also, two overs), we should be having the right setting for a goal-fest here. So, as a short recap: both teams playing quite offensively so far; this will be a big local derby, so the win has an even bigger importance; both teams used to playing at high altitude, which usually provides with entertaining games. Also, as a reference, last year they played in the Torneo Intermedio, which Garcilaso won 3-1 (although it was a 95% fix from Cienciano, who had a poor financial state and wanted to avoid traveling in the next round). GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, LOST