Cienciano - Juan Aurich

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Another match where I don't really agree with the odds. Cienciano has the altitude advantage, but that's it. Quality and form are definitely on Aurich's side, who - before last round - had a run of 8 consecutive games without a loss. And it could have went on for a while longer, but they had to face leaders and finalists Universitario, so they can't be criticized too much. Meanwhile, Cienciano is dropping points all over the place, including at home, and away at teams as poor as Jose Galvez. So it's rather strange for me to set Cienciano up as favorites solely due to the altitude, because the first question that comes into mind is: since when haven't they beaten Aurich? And the answer is: from 2011. That means that in the last 6 mutual matches, Aurich won 5 and drew the other one. And one win and the draw were taken in Cusco, under similar conditions. And right now Aurich is gunning for Copa Sudamericana (4 points behind the last qualifying spot), so for sure they'll focus and play their best game. GL!

Juan Aurich (+0.25 AH) @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST

Universitario - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

The Liguillas are set and scheduled to start, and Universitario already announced themselves as main contenders for the Liguilla B and for the final. Their group is relatively easy, without the rest of the main contenders (Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza), and they also have a 6-points advantage over second placed Cajamarca, so normally they shouldn't sweat for the final and should just power through the rest of their matches. First stop would be with Cienciano, a team generally known for their home-ground prowess, as their performances on the road leave much to be desired. They lost more than half of their away games (8 out of 15), and have a negative goal-scoring record of 13-29. Their last matches also leave a lot to be desired, as they drew with Pacifico and lost at Leon, Juan Aurich and San Martin, the only white point being the draw they snatched at Garcilaso. Meanwhile, Universtario are really on fire, as they have 4 straight victories, including a 5-1 trashing of Jose Galvez and a 3-0 beat-down with title hopefuls Cristal. They will be missing their top scorer today, Raul Ruidiaz (13 goals in 28 games), but he should be well covered by Diego Gustavino, who scored 7 goals in 18 matches that he started as a regular (plus 8 more as a substitute). Cienciano shouldn't pose too many problems, they are quite safe from relegation, so I expect Universitario to keep up their good run of form. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Universitario - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Universitario is aiming to reclaim the top spot in the league, although if that happens tonight it won't have a big effect, as Real Garcilaso (the current leaders) will have 3 games in hand. But it should be good for the morale, especially since Universitario have really upped their game this season. They have a solid home record of 6-1-2, and are undefeated in their last 6 matches. No important absences for this game, and with Ruidiaz finally getting back into form, they could pose a serious title challenge for Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza Lima. Cienciano are also in great form, being undefeated in their last 7 games, but 5 of them have been played at home, and we know how strong they can get in the heights of Cuzco. But we do have to mention their incredible 1-0 victory away at Alianza Lima, at the end of April. I'll pin that down to a once-in-a-hundred game, because if we look at the big picture, they're away form is quite bad, losing points even against other teams that are playing at altitude. Universitario look very serious this year, and I simply can't see them failing at home against Cienciano. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Cienciano - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

I'm gonna take this bet early, without waiting for any line-up confirmation, because regardless of the playing conditions, this has a certain amount of value. First of all, I am expecting some changes in Garcilaso's team, as this would be their third match in 7 days, and just a couple of days later they will have to travel to Paraguay for another Libertadores clash against Cerro Porteno. They showed some good performances so far, despite the fact that most of the key players from last season have left the team, but this time it should be slightly different, as the regulars will be tired, while the reserves probably still need time to blend in with the team. Cienciano should be well rested, as they didn't have to play a single match so far, so they should have had more than enough time to prepare for this Clasico (both teams are from Cuzco, and even share the same stadium, so there won't be any home/altitude advantage). Last year they exchanged wins and points, with either team taking the victory when playing as 'hosts', so I'm expecting something similar to happen. Garcilaso doesn't have such a strong squad to focus on more competitions at the same time, and the good start they have in Libertadores should make them look to Cerro Porteno. GL!

Cienciano (+0.25 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Well, I missed a tempo ever since the lines/odds have opened for this last round in Peru, but let's still try to take advantage of what we have. Sporting Cristal will play the final, and have no chance of losing the first place in the aggregate table. And as a result, they will be playing the first leg of the final next week, in Cusco. Since it will be a very tough match, as a result of the high altitude, they have already traveled to Cusco, where they will remain for an entire week, trying to get used to the air. Therefore, only the goalkeeper and two players from the first squad have remained in Lima, to face Cienciano, and they will be the only experienced players among a group of youngsters. Cienciano has no objectives left, so they will only play this match because they have to. However, they should use their main team, and if we look at the players quality-wise, they should have the advantage. The opening line was great, but the odds dropped a lot ever since. So , I'm taking this bet instead (with a fresh line), and I will definitely take them even as low as +0.5. GL!

Cienciano (+0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 3-3, WON

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Sporting Cristal is, without a doubt, the best Peruvian team of the year. They managed to qualify to the final of the tournament 6 rounds before the end, and now they can just take it easy, and have some 'official training matches' against the rest of the teams. And they also have the liberty to choose which matches should they play with the first team, and in which matches should they try some of the less used players. Today, it will be the second scenario. Cristal is between two weekend matches, they played with the first team last Sunday, and most of them will be rested today, especially due to the high altitude of Cusco. Besides, even with their best players on the field, they still might have suffered today, as they struggled most of the times when they played at altitude this season: they did manage to beat Melgar and Leon, but other than that, they only have draws with Huancayo and Inti Gas, while losing the other 4 games (including the one with Cienciano, 1-2). The hosts are still hoping to get to a continental tournament next year, so for sure they will give their all. And it would also be a high profile win against the best team in the country. The handicap line makes this bet a must-take. GL!

Cienciano DNB @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

U San Martin - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

After San Martin returned to the first division, a couple of rounds after the start of the championship, they immediately made an impact, with some very good results against the top teams. However, that quickly changed, and now they find themselves near the bottom of the table. Their form isn't great either, with just one win in their last 7 games, but we have to look at their opponents from those matches as well: lost against the leaders Cristal and Cesar Vallejo as visitors, and against Universitario (all of them were derbies), drew in the altitude from Huanuco with Leon, and at home against high-flying Real Garcilaso, plus another draw at home against second placed (in their group) Jose Galvez. So really, all of them have been very tough games. And it should get a bit easier today, as Cienciano are awful travelers, with a record of 1-2-13. They lost the last 8 consecutive away matches, with a goal difference of 3-19. This isn't very unusual for them, as they are traditionally poor travelers, but San Martin do have to end their poor recent run. I think it will be a relief for them to play against Cienciano after so many hard matches, and we have a nice line to try (it would have been around -1.25 if San Martin would have been in good form). GL!

San Martin (-0.75 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON

Inti Gas - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Exciting clash at high altitude today, as Inti Gas will face Cienciano. And usually, these high altitude clashes tend to have a lot of goals, and there were many opportunities when we banked on that trend. So let's try it again. Altitude should not play an important role here, as both teams are used to play under this conditions. Cienciano will definitely come to play football, not to defend, because they need the points to steer clear from the relegation area (currently just 7 points above the line), and even from their stats you can see that they like to take risks and win the game, rather than hoping for a draw. They have the best attack among the lower half clubs, with 31 goals scored, but they also have the second worst defense in the league, allowing 39 goals in their net. As a fun fact, all of their last 11 games had a minimum of 2 goals scored. Inti Gas have respect their traditional 'home team' status, winning 8 of their 12 matches, so for sure they won't be an easy prey. But if the game will be played as I expect it, we should see a lot of goal-scoring chances, and hopefully, also a lot of goals. The odds are very nice, so this bet is definitely worth it. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.86, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

A lot of disappointment in the Cristal camp. They have a great team, and were being dubbed one of the main contenders for the league title. And while the season is still long, and nothing is decided yet, their recent performances have been far from impressive. 4th place for them, 5 points behind leaders Cesar Vallejo, but what's really worrying is their form, having won a single match from the last 7 they played (it's true that they also had some tough matches, against Cesar Vallejo, Alianza Lima, San Martin, and two visits to high altitude teams... but that shouldn't be an excuse for them). So today they will try to bounce right back, otherwise all hell could break loose. And in front of them will be Cienciano, a traditionally poor traveling team, that has 'lived up' to that name this season as well (0-1-4 as visitors, with goal difference of 2-8). Even their general form is bad, as they only have 2 wins in the last 10 matches. So, with Cristal in pretty much a must win situation, and with a poor Cienciano in front of them, I can't see past a home win for this match. And it should be a big one. GL!

Cristal (-1.25 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

Cesar Vallejo - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Cesar Vallejo, after a great start of the season that saw them take the 2nd place in the early standings, will now try to continue with their good form and defeat Cienciano in Trujillo. And they have very high chances to do so, in what promises to be an entertaining encounter, between two teams that usually favor an offensive style of football. Cesar Vallejo made 2 shows so far, when playing as hosts, defeating Alianza by 2-0 and trashing Melgar by 4-1. As I said, they try to move the ball forward as fast as possible, and this has payed off so far. Cienciano, despite traditionally being poor visitors, also like to play offense, and this leaves lots of spaces behind, spaces that will be perfect to exploit by Vallejo's pace. They managed to score in all their 5 games so far, but have also conceded in 4 of those games, making them quite an interesting team to watch. The handicap line is set quite right, but the odds are poor, so I'm going for the over, as I expect both teams to score, with a probable result of 3-1 for the hosts. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.03, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

This should be an interesting high-altitude duel. Real Garcilaso has been the surprise package of the Primera Division so far, and they seem to have the potential to keep it going, especially with the high altitude from Cuzco, the city where they are based (so yes, this will be a local derby). And when 2 teams that play at altitude meet, we usually have a lot of goals. Real had some nice results, and also plenty of goals this season, scoring 6 goals in 3 matches, two of them ending in over. Cienciano didn't have a bad start themselves, but losing at home last week means that today they will be out for vengeance, and an offensive plan is expected. And with 5 goals scored in 3 matches (also, two overs), we should be having the right setting for a goal-fest here. So, as a short recap: both teams playing quite offensively so far; this will be a big local derby, so the win has an even bigger importance; both teams used to playing at high altitude, which usually provides with entertaining games. Also, as a reference, last year they played in the Torneo Intermedio, which Garcilaso won 3-1 (although it was a 95% fix from Cienciano, who had a poor financial state and wanted to avoid traveling in the next round). GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Universitario - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Odds moving all the time, because the news are pretty contradictory. First, it was rumored that Universitario will once again use their youth squad for this match, showing solidarity with San Martin's case, and that is probably the reason why the odds went up. But, more recent news are giving a better light in regards to U, as there has been an agreement between the players and the club, so we will see the professional players tonight on the pitch. The ones that won't be able to play are the new signings, as Universitario's proposed payment plan hasn't been approved yet, so the new players don't have the right to play. Even so, they still should have a good enough team to be able to win this match, especially since Cienciano didn't make a great transfer campaign, seem a bit weak, and are also usually poor travelers. Of course, what they are really capable of doing is still an unknown, but the odds are quite ok for a home win, especially if we keep in mind that Universitario won the last 4 clashes against Cienciano that were played in Lima. GL!

Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Juan Aurich - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Juan Aurich has a great chance to secure their place in the league's final, as a win here would at least keep the difference (if Huancayo and Leon also win their matches) to 7 points, and it would be practically impossible to lose that advantage in the last 3 rounds. And their home form has been superb this season, being still undefeated, winning 10 of their 13 matches played in Chiclayo. Cienciano are hopeful of a Copa Sudamericana qualification, but their recent form (only won 2 of their last 10 games, one of them being against the youth team of Universitario), and their away form (2-3-8 as visitors) don't give them much hope for this clash. Even more, they will have two important missing, that are likely to provide a huge blow. First of all, veteran striker and symbol of the team, Ibarra, is injured, while coach Jurado also won't be present on the bench, due to some spinal problems. Head to head also favors Aurich, winning 4 games at home, from 6 played, so I don't see them missing this opportunity. GL!

Juan Aurich (-1.25 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 5-0, WON

Union Comercio - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division

Union Comercio are coming into this match after being trashed last week by San Martin, 1-5, so they need to sort themselves out fast, if they want to avoid getting dragged into the relegation fight. Lucky for them, they are facing a troubled opponent today, so they just need to focus and take advantage of that. Comercio have a solid form when playing at home (and today they will finally return to their home city), losing just 1 and drawing 3, in 10 home games. Even against the big teams they have been performing solidly, drawing with Alianza and Aurich, before getting 2 consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Cienciano are getting deeper and deeper in problems, as they haven't won in their last 7 matches. They are known for being poor travelers (2-2-6 on the road), but lately they can't even win a home game, where the altitude usually plays a big role and helps them a lot (lost the last 3 home games). First match between them also ended with a good result for Comercio, snatching a 2-2 in the altitude of Cuzco, for which I think they will be more than ready to take the 3 points today. Cienciano will also have some injury worries, and that's why the coach hasn't confirmed the line-up yet. Good opportunity for Union Comercio to take 3 points. GL!

Union Comercio (-0.5 AH) @ 1.94, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Universitario - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division

Whoever made these odds must have been on crack. Yes, Universitario is playing like crap lately, but surprisingly, it's working. They have lost just one game so far, and with 3 points tonight, they will tie Cienciano on points at the top of the table, at least until tomorrow. They have been greedy with the goals and the entertainment, as they have scored only 7 goals in 10 matches, and only Cobresol have a worse attack than that, but even so, Universitario is gathering points. Only the away games seem to be a problem, as they haven't won a single match out of Monumental, while at home they are 4-1-0. Few goals, but great efficency, and their only draw came with Juan Aurich. Cienciano are the surprising leaders of the Descentralizado, but I'm sure that won't last, as a typical home team can't have many hopes. They have been helped by a good start, but slowly, they have been losing steam: narrow wins at home with Cesar Vallejo and Inti Gas, a 2-2 draw with Union Comercio, and 1 defeat (Cristal) + 1 draw (Cobresol) on the road. Universitario is also in a small crisis, and in the past weeks they haven't always trained normally, due to some debts towards the players. But, that didn't stop them from playing normally so far, and there are reports that everything has been solved yesterday. Last time Cienciano took a point in Lima was in 2008, and their last win goes all the way back to 2003, so anything else than another home win tonight is highly unlikely. GL!

Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 5-0, WON

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division

Cristal priced at 2.00 at home against Cienciano? Now what's wrong with this picture. Cristal have been very irregular so far, winning-losing-drawing, without any pattern. Lost at home with Melgar, won away at Sport Boys, drew at home with Alianza, etc... pretty much no logic in their results. And Cienciano come in this match with a great morale, having won 4 of their last 5 matches. BUT, we have to be realistic: Cienciano is still the same team from last year... without too much money, without any big players (except Ibarra). They are playing better than in 2010, so they could achieve a safe position just from the home matches, but I still don't see them as a big threat when playing as visitors, as they are a typical home team, playing at high altitude as locals - and being quite strong when their game goes well, but being really poor on the road, and this has been a pattern established over the last few seasons. The only reason that may put me off this bet are the recent results between them, Cristal not being able to win any of their last 4 matches, also losing their last 2 games played in Lima, but even so, these odds are too good to be missed. They haven't been priced so high since 2007 (last year they were at 1.46), so the odds alone represent value, but I also believe they have good chances of winning this, as Cienciano is very likely just a soap bubble, ready to burst. GL!

Cristal (-0.5 AH) @ 2.07, 5/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Cienciano - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Lately, I have noticed some improvements in Cienciano. 2 weeks ago they have finally won a match after several winless rounds, when they beat Juan Aurich at home by 3-0, and their last 2 defeats were quite at the limit, giving both Alianza Atletico and Melgar a good fight (and keep in mind the fact that they were in strike, and also that the matches were played with just 2 days of rest, in opposite places of the country). They have also received payment for a month (still 3 left to be payed), so things are looking slightly better now, and they are focused on avoiding the drop. Sport Boys will miss 2 important pieces, some of their most important players: midfielder Michael Guevara and defender/captain Mario Gomez. So, in order to exploit this key absences, coach Ibarra will prepare an offensive line-up, trying to suffocate Boys from the start (and the altitude should also help them here, as Sport Boys are from port-city Callao). One more statistical thing worth mentioning is that since 2000, Sport Boys have played in Cuzco 19 times, and have never won, barely managing 4 draws, while most of those 15 loses have been quite drastic. Cienciano has the knife near their bones, so it's now or never for them, and it would be a shame to see them relegate. GL!

Cienciano (-0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

FBC Melgar - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

No matter how I look at this match, I can't see beyond a clear and solid victory for the home side. Cienciano came very close of being the first team relegated yesterday, when the players threatened the chairman with not traveling to Arequipa, which would have resulted in a second walk-over and in direct relegation. But the debts have been played, and the match is finally going to be played. Just that there is one more problem here: chairman Silva wanted the team to travel by bus, and all the players have refused, since they played just 2 days ago in Piura, and Arequipa is on the other side of the country, so even the players are saying that if they travel by bus, they will be trashed. But despite their protest, without any funds for plane transportation, they had to settle for the bus, leaving from Lima yesterday late in the evening. I expect them to attack tonight, as if they lose here, they will most probably relegate anyway, but with the state of fatigue they are having, I can see Melgar putting a few goals past them. Melgar should be in full force, and striker Meza Cuadra is back in the starting line-up. They are on a safe position for the moment, but a win here will see them 11 points clear, and will be as good as sealing their place in the First League for next season. Low odds for the current line, so I'm going to lower the stakes a bit, and go for the over, as I expect at least 3 goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Cienciano - FBC Melgar

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Yesterday’s over bet didn’t go as planned, and it wasn’t even close to delivering, but today, I’m going to try it again, on two more matches. First of all, we have ‘El Clasico del Sur’, the Southern Derby. This thing alone adds some more spice on the match, as both teams will be extra-motivated to win the match. Cienciano’s financial problems have finally ended, and things are looking much better than before, and the players are almost up-to-date with their payment, so they can focus fully on playing football. Already said a while ago that they were more than impressive even when the financial crisis was at it’s deepest point, and they’ve won my biggest respect, so now it’s time for them to keep going. And with Ibarra as a coach, they looked very offensive (normal thing, as Ibarra is also their striker and top-scorer), and that shouldn’t change too much today.

Melgar is an irregular team, but one thing is certain: they are good at creating chances, but also good at conceding, and usually, their matches end with several goals. Their problem is more mentally, as if they concede first, there are only slim chances to turn the match around. So it’s really questionable who will win today, and what side of the bed will Melgar wake up, but one thing is pretty sure: both teams will attack. Cienciano because they are at home, and they transform into an attacking machine when they are in Cusco, and Melgar because they can’t rely on their back line (received 27 goals in away games, the same number of goals scored by Cienciano at home), and the best defense for them is the offense. GL!

over 2.5 @ 2.05, 3/10 

Result: 0-1, LOST