Nov 8, 2012

El Nacional - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Deportivo Quito is starting to get up to date with their matches, since their schedule has cleared a bit after their Copa Sudamericana elimination. And they really need to start summing up points if they don't want to fight against relegation up until the last round... and the same can be said about El Nacional, as they are tied on points with Deportivo Quito, just one point above the relegation line. So, simply put, a draw won't help any of them, that is why I expect both of them to go straight for the victory. El Nacional will have it the hardest, despite being hosts, as they have 3 important absences, all in defense, as Javier Chila (13/0), Jose Madrid (13/0) and Jhon Narvaez (7/0) are all suspended. Big blows, but it doesn't justify the recent increase of odds on them, as they are still the only undefeated team at home. Besides, Deportivo Quito did show some slight improvements recently, but they are not consistent. I'm going for over here, as El Nacional's back line should suffer with all those absences, and I expect both teams to show some attacking football, willing to go for the 3 points. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Nov 7, 2012

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Sporting Cristal is, without a doubt, the best Peruvian team of the year. They managed to qualify to the final of the tournament 6 rounds before the end, and now they can just take it easy, and have some 'official training matches' against the rest of the teams. And they also have the liberty to choose which matches should they play with the first team, and in which matches should they try some of the less used players. Today, it will be the second scenario. Cristal is between two weekend matches, they played with the first team last Sunday, and most of them will be rested today, especially due to the high altitude of Cusco. Besides, even with their best players on the field, they still might have suffered today, as they struggled most of the times when they played at altitude this season: they did manage to beat Melgar and Leon, but other than that, they only have draws with Huancayo and Inti Gas, while losing the other 4 games (including the one with Cienciano, 1-2). The hosts are still hoping to get to a continental tournament next year, so for sure they will give their all. And it would also be a high profile win against the best team in the country. The handicap line makes this bet a must-take. GL!

Cienciano DNB @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

Nov 5, 2012

Sport Boys - FBC Melgar

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

The two finalists of the Peruvian Primera Division are pretty much settled, but there are still a lot to play for: qualification to an international cup is the main objective for several teams, with Melgar being one of them. They are currently sitting on a qualifying position, sitting on 5th place, but nothing has been settled there, as there are 9 teams separated by 9 points, so everything could easily change. Every point counts, especially those won away from home, so I'm expecting Melgar to go all-in, against an already relegated and demoralized Sport Boys team. A lot of nerves and low morale took over the home team, during the last couple of weeks, and without any objective left, they will only play for honor. Melgar, as I said, has everything to play for, and they should start strong, trying to take advantage of the bad atmosphere in Callao. The only thing that keeps me from betting on them is the fact that they are the worst traveling team in this group, with just 1 win and 7 draws in 19 matches. But they have greatly improved lately, with just 2 defeats in their last 10 games. The over looks good, especially due to the low line available, as I'm expecting a minimum of 2 goals. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST

Nov 4, 2012

Deportivo Quito - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Deportivo Quito is yet another team involved in the relegation battle, and it would be almost inconceivable to see them in the second division. Just one point ahead of the safe line, tied on points with El Nacional, they would have to dig deep, because every point counts. They had a dreadful start of the season, but the good news is that they started to recover some form, as they are undefeated in the last 4 games, recording 3 wins meanwhile. Cuenca is also pretty much living off the points gathered in the first round, as right now they are almost as poor as Quito. The only difference is that while Quito is in recovery, Cuenca is stagnating, especially when they are visitors, holding a record of 1-1-6, with 4 goals scored and 12 conceded. Another tough match is expected, and I'm waiting for a low scoreline (as Quito is not known for being scoring-frenzy), but a home win should eventually be delivered. It's definitely worth a bet, especially since the odds went up a bit. GL!

Quito (-0.5 AH) @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Olmedo - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Olmedo is as good as relegated, and only a miracle could save them now, as they are 8 points behind the safe line. And with time running out, any miracles are unlikely. Despite the fact that they say they will still fight until everything is lost, they have already started to 'clean' their squad, that's why we won't see some important figures today: Midfielders Godoy (27/1), Prieto (19/4) and Nazareno (9/1), plus defender Gamez (15/0) and forward Sergio Souza (12/6) are no longer training with the first squad. Out of them, at least 3 are considered key members of the squad. Morale is low within the team, as after a promising start of the Second Round, they went back to their dreadful form, having 6 consecutive matches without a win. El Nacional are also deeply involved in the relegation battle, and are just 1 point above the line, so a win is a must here. They've had some nice results lately, beating Barcelona and Manta, and drawing with LDU Quito. However, they are still winless on the road, so I really expect an ugly match today. But with some absences for Olmedo, and a different mood for the visitors, they should be able to take something here. GL!

El Nacional (+0.25 AH) @ 1.74, 3/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-WON