Aug 16, 2012

Envigado - Union Comercio

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Don't have as much confidence in this bet as I had yesterday with Millonarios, but it should still be a solid bet. The Peruvian teams are near the bottom of the standings when we talk about South American club football, and they usually struggle even when it comes to playing against Ecuadorian or Paraguayan teams. And even though from time to time, the big guns (Universitario, Alianza Lima, etc) manage to get some results, the smaller teams usually fail miserably. And this should be the case with Union Comercio. They won promotion to the 2011 Primera Division for the first time in their short history, and even though they managed a very good campaign, I still rate them as a small team. And this was visible in the first leg as well... while Envigado isn't a great team even by Colombian standards, they managed to keep a 0-0 draw in Peru, in a pretty dull affair. And while Comercio are poor travelers in Peru (so I expect an even lower level outside of the country), Envigado is usually a strong home team in Colombia, losing only 1 match in the last 8 played at home in the league. Don't expect too much entertainment, but expect the home team to win and qualify. Small stakes only. GL!

Envigado (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Aug 15, 2012

Millonarios - Inti Gas

Copa Sudamericana 2012

A 0-0 in the first leg leaves the door for the qualification wide open, but if we look at this match realistically, we should only see one winner. Millonarios of Colombia have been in red hot form lately, winning all 3 matches from their league, and not receiving a goal in the 4 games that they have played (including the first leg with Inti Gas). They have a very good team, with big names like Wason Renteria, and after this great start of the new season, they really have high hopes. In the first match, played in Ayacucho, Millonarios have been pretty much in control of the game, underlining the quality gap between them and Inti Gas, and the man of the match was the Peruvian goalkeeper, who was able to keep the match scoreless. For the Peruvian team, there was only one scoring chance, as they were struggling throughout most of the game. So now, Inti Gas really has an impossible mission, as they need to take something out of this game, and with their away form in the local league (2-3-10), I doubt they will have much celebration. Home factor and a clear advantage in quality makes Millonarios huge favorites for this game, and they should be winning it quite easily. GL!

Millonarios (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Nacional - Deportes Iquique

Copa Sudamericana 2012

After losing the first leg with 0-2 in Chile, Nacional now have to repeat the same score in order to push the game into extra-time, or to win by at least 3 goals to qualify directly. And it will be a tough job, as Iquique aren't exactly pushovers, and Nacional haven't accomplished a feat like that (qualifying after losing the first leg as visitors) for over 11 years. Still, they will give it their best, and that is why tonight we will see a much more offensive formation than 2 weeks ago. Coach Diaz is expected to field a 4-3-3 formation, with Sanchez, Medina and Bueno up front, trying to press from the first minute, and score rapidly to increase their chances. And they have some chances to pull an amazing come-back, as Iquique's performances (especially in away games) aren't great. In this year's Clausura, they have received 11 goals in the 6 games played, including two away trashings: 0-5 at Rangers Talca, and a 1-4 at Huachipato. This contrasts greatly with their Apertura performance, when they were the best away team in the league, finishing the tournament undefeated. The atmosphere in Montevideo should also be hellish, and it will push Nacional from behind. Once again, I have to choose between the handicap and the over, and I'm going for the handicap, as I;m expecting Nacional to have possession and dominate the match. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON