Copa Sudamericana 2012
Don't have as much confidence in this bet as I had yesterday with Millonarios, but it should still be a solid bet. The Peruvian teams are near the bottom of the standings when we talk about South American club football, and they usually struggle even when it comes to playing against Ecuadorian or Paraguayan teams. And even though from time to time, the big guns (Universitario, Alianza Lima, etc) manage to get some results, the smaller teams usually fail miserably. And this should be the case with Union Comercio. They won promotion to the 2011 Primera Division for the first time in their short history, and even though they managed a very good campaign, I still rate them as a small team. And this was visible in the first leg as well... while Envigado isn't a great team even by Colombian standards, they managed to keep a 0-0 draw in Peru, in a pretty dull affair. And while Comercio are poor travelers in Peru (so I expect an even lower level outside of the country), Envigado is usually a strong home team in Colombia, losing only 1 match in the last 8 played at home in the league. Don't expect too much entertainment, but expect the home team to win and qualify. Small stakes only. GL!
Envigado (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 4/10Result: 2-0, WON