Inti Gas - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Let's start with the obvious here: Jose Galvez is the poorest team in this group, and one of the weakest teams in the league. They are rock-bottom, on 8th place, 7 points behind San Martin, and they also have a horrendous away record, having lost 13 from the 16 games they've played, with an away goal difference of 14-39. And today's match will be played at high altitude, so there's an extra-factor against them. Inti Gas are solid and stable, as they sit on second place, 8 points behind the leaders. And while their chances of going in the final are very slim, they could very well qualify for a continental cup, so that should keep them motivated. Now, there is also an extra reason that I'm taking a rather high handicap. Jose Galvez were supposed to travel to Ayacucho yesterday, and they did, but due to some meteorological problems, their flight was returned to Lima. This means that they'll travel once again by plane today, two and a half hours before the kick-off time, and as soon as they reach Ayacucho, they will travel to the stadium by bus. Very little time of recovery, and they should also fully feel the effects of the altitude. GL!

Inti Gas (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST

Inti Gas - Atletico Nacional

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin  is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!

Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Sport Huancayo - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

This is a classic match between two teams that are used to play at high altitude. And as it's usually the case, a lot of goals are expected. Sport Huancayo, without doubt, will try to control the match and to score as many as possible, in order to prolong their great run of form, which saw them climb all the way to the top of the table. They are undefeated in their last 6 games, with 3 consecutive wins, so they are rightfully sitting on the first place, even though Garcilaso could overtake them, as they have two matches less. Huancayo has the second best attack in the league, but also a rather average defense, so a few more reasons to expect several goals. On the other side, we have Inti Gas, a team that is familiar to the altitude. They're not one of the top teams here, especially when playing away, but they can at least take the altitude advantage out of the way, and play as equals against Huancayo. They've scored 16 goals so far, in 12 matches, which is quite a lot for the average Peruvian team (as a comparison, they have more goals scored than big teams like Alianza Lima, Universitario or Cesar Vallejo), but their defense is just awful, much worse than Huancayo's. Out of their last 10 mutual games, 8 have finished with at least three goals, so it should be the same scenario today as well. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-2, LOST

Cajamarca - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Very good start of the season for Inti Gas, with 4 points in the first 2 rounds (an away draw and a solid 2-0 win against Leon). They showed nice football, and are creating chances with ease. So I think they should be at least on par with Cajamarca. Main advantage for the home team should normally be the high altitude (Cajamarca is situated at around 2700 meters above sea level), but so far, not even that helped them, as they lost their only home game by 1-2, against Alianza Lima. And today, there definitely won't be any advantages for them, as Inti Gas comes from Ayacucho, which has the same altitude. Cajamarca's main flaw is their offense, as they struggle to create chances and pressure, but now they can count on Reimond Manco (came from Qatar). However, I don't expect him to make an immediate impact, as even though he has the quality, he played just a few matches in the last couple of years, without too many accomplishments. So I expect Cajamarca to keep struggling, and Inti Gas should be able to bully them and take at least a point here. GL!

Inti Gas (+0.25 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 3-1, LOST

Inti Gas - Cobresol

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This one should be a no-brainer. Inti Gas are in a must win situation, otherwise their entire work throughout  the season would have been in vain. They currently sit on 7th place, the last one the brings with it a qualification to the Copa Sudamericana, and there is no place for missteps, as a list of 5 teams are rooting for that place. A draw won't do here, so Inti Gas has no other options than to take the three points. And normally, that shouldn't be a problem against a team in Cobresol's position. They have been relegated for quite some time, most of their players have left the team, and they are just waiting miserably for the season to end. Cobresol lost 18 of their 21 games played as visitors, conceding 52 goals, and if we add the altitude to this series of bad results, we should see a clear winner. The handicap is high, and the odds have dropped, but it's still worth taking for some medium stakes. GL!

Inti Gas (-1.5 AH) @ 1.72, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Millonarios - Inti Gas

Copa Sudamericana 2012

A 0-0 in the first leg leaves the door for the qualification wide open, but if we look at this match realistically, we should only see one winner. Millonarios of Colombia have been in red hot form lately, winning all 3 matches from their league, and not receiving a goal in the 4 games that they have played (including the first leg with Inti Gas). They have a very good team, with big names like Wason Renteria, and after this great start of the new season, they really have high hopes. In the first match, played in Ayacucho, Millonarios have been pretty much in control of the game, underlining the quality gap between them and Inti Gas, and the man of the match was the Peruvian goalkeeper, who was able to keep the match scoreless. For the Peruvian team, there was only one scoring chance, as they were struggling throughout most of the game. So now, Inti Gas really has an impossible mission, as they need to take something out of this game, and with their away form in the local league (2-3-10), I doubt they will have much celebration. Home factor and a clear advantage in quality makes Millonarios huge favorites for this game, and they should be winning it quite easily. GL!

Millonarios (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Inti Gas - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Exciting clash at high altitude today, as Inti Gas will face Cienciano. And usually, these high altitude clashes tend to have a lot of goals, and there were many opportunities when we banked on that trend. So let's try it again. Altitude should not play an important role here, as both teams are used to play under this conditions. Cienciano will definitely come to play football, not to defend, because they need the points to steer clear from the relegation area (currently just 7 points above the line), and even from their stats you can see that they like to take risks and win the game, rather than hoping for a draw. They have the best attack among the lower half clubs, with 31 goals scored, but they also have the second worst defense in the league, allowing 39 goals in their net. As a fun fact, all of their last 11 games had a minimum of 2 goals scored. Inti Gas have respect their traditional 'home team' status, winning 8 of their 12 matches, so for sure they won't be an easy prey. But if the game will be played as I expect it, we should see a lot of goal-scoring chances, and hopefully, also a lot of goals. The odds are very nice, so this bet is definitely worth it. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.86, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Universidad San Martin - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

And here is another bet that should normally go smooth. Ever since they made their return to the championship, San Martin had some very nice performances, and it's worthwhile mentioning their wins against Cristal, Juan Aurich and Universitario. They also had a few slumps, like the home loss with Huancayo, but I think they improved a lot since then (despite their last 2 matches, both lost). Their home form looks solid enough (3-0-2, goal difference of 11-6), and without any important absences, they should have more than enough to beat a traditionally poor traveling team. Inti Gas did manage to take 4 points from 5 away matches this season, but all those points were taken at high altitude, where they feel much better playing. They don't really have what it takes to take on the big teams away from their home altitude, and today they should be an easy prey for San Martin. The handicap is ok, and should be easily covered. GL!

San Martin (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Inti Gas - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Didn't like a single match from today's schedule, until some recent odds movement (unjustified, as far as I know) made this bet a value bet. Odds opened at around 2.00 for the home win, and now we have much better odds for the -0.25 handicap, so this bet is definitely worth a shot. Alianza is a mess at the moment, with lots of administrative and financial problems, so a lot of players have either already left the club, either are on the verge of leaving. At home they are still performing well, especially since last week they won the Super Clasico, 1-0 with Universitario, but there was a lot of motivation from the players in that match, and Universitario isn't in a much better state. Away from home, however, Alianza is a totally different team, losing all 3 matches played so far. Two of them were at high altitude (1-2 at Garcilaso and 0-3 at Melgar), and today as well the altitude should play a role. Inti Gas is traditionally a good home team, with a 2-1-1 record this year, including a win against Universitario. Also, Alianza managed to win on this stadium only last year, when they were in great form, and their record in Ayacucho is 1-1-3. Current odds worth a medium bet. GL!

Inti Gas (-0.25) @ 2.17, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Universitario - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

All the talk about Universitario's financial crisis, administrative problems, their participation in Copa Sudamericana, and the fact that they will use a mixed squad for his match, gave us very sweet odds on them. But, let's take them one at a time. The financial crisis is real, but this week they received some money, and managed to pay a part of the debts towards the players. Not much, but enough to convince them to sign the Syndicate's papers, so now they play the points on the field (unlike their previous 2 matches, where they lost the points even before playing the match). Their Copa Sudamericana campaign could be a problem here, as indeed they will rest some key players, but it is not yet certain how many. But since they are really starting to be threatened by relegation (only 4 points in front of the 'red zone'), and encouraged by the fact that the players also agreed to sign those papers so they can avoid relegation, I'm expecting a pretty decent line-up, that won't be a sure victim. Especially since Inti Gas have lost 8 of their 13 away games, and have the worst defense as visitors, receiving 34 goals. The referee could also have an impact here, as I doubt it will be in anyone's interest to see Universitario relegating. GL!

Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 2.14, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Inti Gas - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Good opportunity for Inti Gas to make a solid performance at home, as usual, and to take 3 points that will help them remain in the top half of the table. They will use more or less the same team that lost at Juan Aurich during the weekend, as they will once again have a few unavailable players: Moisela is suspended, while Landauri is injured, but as I said before, just Landauri can be considered an important absence, as he is the only one of the above-mentioned players that has featured regularly. Meanwhile, CNI will also have some absences, but they are quite important for the team: defender Portilla (12 matches played so far) is suspended, while midfielders Noronha (11 matches) and Barrena (10 matches) are doubtful through injury, and it looks like they have slim chances of playing tonight. Moreover, there is also a high altitude in Ayacucho, and that usually helps the home team, especially against smaller teams that play in the lowlands, like CNI. In their 4 trips to Ayacucho, CNI has lost all the matches, with a goal difference of 1-11. Don't see it much different today, as I expect Inti Gas to win it comfortably and recover from the heavy beat-down suffered last Sunday. GL!

Inti Gas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

Juan Aurich - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Up until this week, Juan Aurich were the most in-form team from Peru, being the only undefeated team of the league, and mounting a serious title challenge. But then, came the loss in the heights of Cuzco, at the hands of the league leaders, so now Aurich have to start all over again. Of course, one loss isn't the end of the world, as with a win tonight they could leapfrog Alianza (if they don't win their match), and would be just 2 points behind leaders Cienciano, and honestly, I don't see them keeping this form for the entire tournament. Inti Gas is respecting their status as a typical home team in Peru, where they also have the advantage of altitude. Therefore, they are undefeated at home, but also without a win when playing as visitors. And when you lose with a big difference at Alianza Atletico and Sport Boys (a team which Aurich won 5-0, as visitors), a trip to Chiclayo certainly doesn't sound too good. To make things worse, Inti Gas will also miss 5 players: Ricardo Perez, Rodrigo Ferreyra and Julio Landauri are injured, while Jose Cuero and Jose Moisela are suspended. Just Landauri is a key player for them, but Moisela and Cuero are pretty important as well, so it is certain they will feel their absences. GL!

Juan Aurich (-1 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10 

Result: 3-0, WON

Cesar Vallejo - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Both teams have been doing a decent job in the league, as both are close behind the leaders, but UCV seems to be in better shape than Inti Gas. Cesar Vallejo lost their last match in Cuzco, against Cienciano, but before that they were on a run of 5 matches without defeat, nicely recovering after a pretty bad start of the season. And from their 4 defeats, 2 can be easily explained by the fact that they played at altitude (against Cienciano and Sport Huancayo), while the other ones came against the champions and the runners-up, who despite being in terrible form, are still dangerous opponents for anyone. Meanwhile, Inti Gas is 2 points ahead of Cesar Vallejo, but only thanks to their home form, also aided by high altitude. When playing as visitors, they are on a 0-1-3 run, losing even against teams like Alianza Atletico or Sport Boys, both being teams that are/belong to the lower part of the table. So I really don't see why Cesar Vallejo couldn't do the same. Both teams have one important absence: UCV will miss top scorer Rossel - who is suspended, while Inti Gas will be resting one of their main players, midfielder Franco Mendoza - who isn't fit after an injury, and won't be risked before the clash with Universitario. So these 2 absences should even themselves out. Head-to-head matches show a home team dominance, but Cesar Vallejo has a slight advantage there... last year they won both matches, while in 2009 both teams kept the 3 points at home. UCV should be comfortable winners here, and the handicap also shouldn't be a problem to cover. GL!

UCV (-1 AH) @ 2.08, 3/10

Result: 3-3, LOST

Sport Huancayo - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Today we'll have a clash of two teams that are used to play 'at heights'. Huancayo comes after a first round loss against Cienciano, but that result might seem a bit harsh on them, as they played quite well, created panic in Cienciano's defense, and made the goalkeeper Noriega the man of the match. But what matters is the good play, and if they can carry it to their home ground (where they usually become much stronger), they will be a tough team to beat, at least today. Sotil and Avila are announced as starters, and they are sure to provide some torment to Inti Gas's defense. The visitors come into this match with 3 points, after a win against Leon de Huanuco at home. But the win didn't come without a lot of suffering, The goal came late, and it was more or less the only highlight in a very gloomy match, with few chances, against a Leon team that was resting most of their regulars. Inti Gas has a lot of new players, a mix of experienced ones and young ones, and honestly, from what they showed in the first round, they are well away from their continental cup objective, despite the 3 points against the finalists. If Sport Huancayo is the same 'monster home team' as last season, this shouldn't be much of a contest. GL!

Sport Huancayo (-0.75 AH) @ 1.84, 4/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Total Chalaco - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Not the greatest of bets here, but I think it's worth a shot here. The thing that makes it a bit tricky is the fact that both teams are playing for nothing. Total Chalaco are already packing their bags for Segunda Division, while Inti Gas can breathe easily, as they live to see another season in Primera, while they are not fighting for anything in this last round.So, motivation should be weak for both teams, but Chalaco's endless problems are making me lean towards the visitors. The players and staff of Chalaco are still being abandoned by the people in charge, as they have been for the past couple of months. They haven't been paid in quite a while, and for some matches, they even had to take taxis to reach the stadium, as the owner didn't even provide them with a bus. For today, a bus will be provided by the Federation. Sadly for them, the players are sick and tired of this treatement, and all of them are wishing it to be over. That's why several players have decided not to show up for this match, and the coach will have at his disposal only a few regulars... the rest of the team will have to be filled with youngsters. Now, Inti Gas isn't a great team, especially when playing away, but morale is sure to be higher, and they have a fair chance here. GL!

Inti Gas DNB @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 2-2, VOID

Inti Gas - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This should be the bet of the day, and I'm giving it huge confidence. Inti Gas, as we all know, is one of the best home teams. They have a pretty good squad, but the altitude of Ayacucho also helps them a lot. They have indeed lost a total of 5 matches at home, but most of them were against the better teams of the league (San Martin, Cesar Vallejo, Leon Huanuco). They are still having mathematical chances to catch a place for Copa Sudamericana, but seriously, they have as much chances as Huancayo, and that's practically nil. But I expect them to fight for a win here, as they should look for redemption, after the flop from last match, when they lost at home against Sporting Cristal. But the good stuff from this match comes from Jose Galvez. They are in some serious trouble with relegation, and they are saving almost all of their regulars for their next home game, against Universitario. They have never won when playing at Inti Gas, and keeping a realistic view on the situation, they know a full strength team will most probably lose again, and will also suffer a lot physically from the altitude. So, a number of 9 players have been given some days off following their last match, and will only report to training on Sunday. That leaves a few reserves for today's game, while the rest of the squad will be filled with youngsters. Doubt they will handle the pressure and the thick air, so I'm expecting the hosts to win quite comfortably. GL!

Inti Gas (-1 AH) @ 1.68, 6/10

Result: 6-0, WON

Universitario - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

I'm going for the quality and the motivation here. No need to speak about the obvious advantage in quality for Universitario, but it should be worth to analyze the motivational factors. Universitario are 4th in the aggregate table, and are almost sure of their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, but of course they are gunning for more. 6 points is the gap between them and 3rd placed Alianza, but anything could still happen in the last 6 rounds, and the schedule seems to favor Universitario a bit, as they have to play Sporting Cristal and Univ San Martin at home, only the derby against Alianza being a tricky away game, while Alianza have some very difficult travels, at Cristal and Inti Gas. So the season isn't over yet for Universitario. On the other hand, Inti Gas are practically playing just for fun. They are safe from relegation, and with very very slim chances to hope for Sudamericana, as it's hard to believe they will the 11 points that separate them from Juan Aurich.And with their dreadful away form, it's impossible. They only have one win on the road, that dates back to February, and surprisingly, they have won on the very same stadium where they will play tonight, against Universitario. Although the Cremas were in the middle of their Copa Libertadores campaign, and were mixing up their squad a bit, so that should minimize a bit Inti Gas's merits. No important team news (U will make probably some changes, but none of them is forced), so as I said, quality and motivation should prevail. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Inti Gas - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

I'm going for a surprise here, as San Martin have gone winning their last 4 games, but these winning streaks don't last very long in Peru. And Ica looks like the perfect place to end your winning streak. San Martin can consider themselves finalists already, as with 13 points ahead of Alianza Lima, it will be almost impossible to lose such an advantage. So I doubt their commitment, despite their words of going for the 3 points, and other things like that. They can rest assured they will be in the final, without much of a sweat, and even though I'm sure they would like another win, I don't think they will push to the extremes to get it. Especially since their top scorer, and also the league's top scorer, Arriola, is doubtful, and it looks like he's going to miss this game. Inti Gas should go out with all they have, and 3 points against the best team of the year will surely motivate them a lot. As I said, in Ica it is very hard to take points, and we just need to look at their last home matches, where they defeated Universitario (2 times this season), Alianza Lima, and Juan Aurich some time ago. They like this sort of matches, and they get some extra-motivation while playing them, and that's what should matter here, because quality is obviously on San Martin's side. GL!

Inti Gas (+0.25 AH) @ 1.78, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON