Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
I see some nice value here. Real Garcilaso has already won the group, and their only objective now is to finish first in the aggregate table. But that's not very important, as the league winners only choose which leg of the final they can play at home, and where the third match will be played in case of a draw... it would be a nice advantage, but not something to die for. Besides, they are not a great team when it comes to playing away from home, and their place in the final has been assured by some perfect home performances, where they won 20 out of 21 games. Meanwhile, Alianza made the poorest season in their recent history, as they are second from bottom in their group, and only 14th in the aggregate table (out of 16 teams). So the least they can do tonight is to win their last match in front of their home fans, and their decent home form should help them with this (only lost 2 games at home). They have already beaten Garcilaso at home this season, 2-0 back in June, and an extra-motivation factor should be that today it will be Juan Jayo's last match as a professional footballer. I don't see Alianza losing this one. GL!
Alianza DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
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Nov 19, 2012
Nov 18, 2012
Liverpool - Wanderers
Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura
When I saw the opening odds for this match, I never though I'd make a bet here, but the recent odds movements pull me closer. Liverpool went down from 1.98 to 1.65, and for no clear reason. They were performers last season in the league, but with most of their players gone, and with a very short squad, the 12th place that they are currently on is a fair reflection. Things haven't changed lately, except their schedule, which is now more 'breathable' since their elimination from Copa Sudamericana. They have 2 consecutive lost matches, and their only 3 victories in their last 10 games, came against newly promoted Progreso, and against bottom teams Cerro Largo and Central Espanol. Meanwhile, Wanderers aren't a great team either, but they can be a real pain most of the times. They are also coming from a bad run of form, mostly due to a lot of injuries, but today they will be able to recover some of those players. The only absences will be midfielders Santiago Martinez (9/1) and Diego de Souza (6/0). Otherwise no changes from their standard team, with Maxi Rodriguez also set to start from the first minute. Medium stakes on this bet, for which I see a lot of value (Liverpool might still be slightly better, but not worthy of those odds), and if anyone can get a +0.75, the stakes can be increased. GL!
Wanderers (+0.5 AH) @ 2.37, 3/10
Result: 2-3, WON
When I saw the opening odds for this match, I never though I'd make a bet here, but the recent odds movements pull me closer. Liverpool went down from 1.98 to 1.65, and for no clear reason. They were performers last season in the league, but with most of their players gone, and with a very short squad, the 12th place that they are currently on is a fair reflection. Things haven't changed lately, except their schedule, which is now more 'breathable' since their elimination from Copa Sudamericana. They have 2 consecutive lost matches, and their only 3 victories in their last 10 games, came against newly promoted Progreso, and against bottom teams Cerro Largo and Central Espanol. Meanwhile, Wanderers aren't a great team either, but they can be a real pain most of the times. They are also coming from a bad run of form, mostly due to a lot of injuries, but today they will be able to recover some of those players. The only absences will be midfielders Santiago Martinez (9/1) and Diego de Souza (6/0). Otherwise no changes from their standard team, with Maxi Rodriguez also set to start from the first minute. Medium stakes on this bet, for which I see a lot of value (Liverpool might still be slightly better, but not worthy of those odds), and if anyone can get a +0.75, the stakes can be increased. GL!
Wanderers (+0.5 AH) @ 2.37, 3/10
Result: 2-3, WON
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