Copa Sudamericana 2012
Odds are just set wrong here, in my opinion. It is true that both teams are in good form, but the Colombians are looking like the more solid team. They are undefeated in the first 8 games they've played, 6 in the league and 2 in Sudamericana against Inti Gas, and in this run of good results, we can also see a 2-1 win over Once Caldas, and a 0-0 draw away at the strong Atletico Nacional. I've talked about Millonarios previously, in my preview for the match against the Peruvians, so I'll keep it short now. They have a very good and solid team, with some big names (Renteria, for example), and are looking like a team that is capable of going a long way. Guarani is also undefeated in the local league, but they did lose a game this season: a shocking 0-1 home loss against the Bolivians from Oriente Petrolero. So really, I can't trust a team like this too much, regardless of their recent form. They did manage some results against the big teams, beating Cerro Porteno and Nacional as visitors, and drawing away at Libertad, but pretty much all these teams are in a small crisis. International competitions are something more than the local leagues, and I doubt Millonarios will lose, as they should be the better team. GL!
Millonarios (+0.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-4, WON
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Aug 31, 2012
Deportivo Quito - Aurora
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Deportivo Quito are still searching for their lost form, but the quality gap should be just too big to miss a bet here. Even though they can't win matches in their home league, at least they have a very solid defense, receiving only 4 goals in 7 games, despite sitting on the last place in the table. They did win both matches played in the first round of Copa Sudamericana, scoring 4 goals against Leon de Huanuco, a team that I rate better than Aurora. And in order to improve their offense, coach Insua is preparing 3 forwards for this game, that should give them some superiority when they get the ball in the opposition's quarter. And if they can play the same way as they did against Leon, this match should be just a formality. Aurora got to this stage after knocking out a poor Cerro Largo. Nothing special happened in that leg... Aurora capitalized on their altitude advantage, and Cerro was just too poor to turn around the score in the second leg. For today's match, they also have a lot of squad problems, with 7 players unavailable (4 of them made the trip to Ecuador, but they have small chances of playing). And in the league they aren't going any better either, losing the last 4 consecutive games, with a goal difference of 0-10!!! The odds also moved up quite nicely, so this should be a good bet.
Deportivo (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Deportivo Quito are still searching for their lost form, but the quality gap should be just too big to miss a bet here. Even though they can't win matches in their home league, at least they have a very solid defense, receiving only 4 goals in 7 games, despite sitting on the last place in the table. They did win both matches played in the first round of Copa Sudamericana, scoring 4 goals against Leon de Huanuco, a team that I rate better than Aurora. And in order to improve their offense, coach Insua is preparing 3 forwards for this game, that should give them some superiority when they get the ball in the opposition's quarter. And if they can play the same way as they did against Leon, this match should be just a formality. Aurora got to this stage after knocking out a poor Cerro Largo. Nothing special happened in that leg... Aurora capitalized on their altitude advantage, and Cerro was just too poor to turn around the score in the second leg. For today's match, they also have a lot of squad problems, with 7 players unavailable (4 of them made the trip to Ecuador, but they have small chances of playing). And in the league they aren't going any better either, losing the last 4 consecutive games, with a goal difference of 0-10!!! The odds also moved up quite nicely, so this should be a good bet.
Deportivo (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Aug 29, 2012
Envigado - Liverpool
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Liverpool made a couple of good match against Universitario Sucre, despite having quite a new-formed team, with lots of new faces and very few of their team from last season. They also managed to win in Bolivia, at high altitude, but the main reason for that was Universitario's weakness. They have also changed almost their entire team, with only two players remaining from last season, and about 10 new faces... so it was like taking some random football players, making them play in an international competition. Tonight, Liverpool will meet a much more solid team, so they won't be having an easy time for sure. The only problem might be Envigado's recent form, which has been far from good. They have lost 4 of their 5 matches played in their local championship, and it can't be a good sign when you are losing at home against a team like Deportivo Pasto. However, in Copa Sudamericana they have been doing fine, knocking out Union Comercio from Peru, with a 2-0 home win. It should be more difficult today, but this is the first match where we can see Liverpool's true face (they have postponed their league match from the weekend). The altitude should also go in the home team's favor, and in the end, the three points should remain in Colombia. GL!
Envigado (-0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
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