Oct 28, 2010

Universitario - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This could be one of Universitario's last chances to close the gap on Alianza, and still hope for the last place that sends them to Copa Libertadores. Alianza plays at San Martin, so they could be in for some points loss, therefore U could get 4 points behind their arch-rivals, and a showdown will likely take place in 2 weeks, when they face each other again. So this is by all means a must-win game for the Cremas, because if they lose points, they could even find themselves out of the Sudamericana race. That is why they will repeat the formation that took the field against Jose Galvez, a very offensive 3-4-3, with 4 attacking players: Alva, Gigena, Labarthe and Ruidiaz, so I expect a lot of goals from then, and they could decide the match (and this bet) by themselves. Against Jose Galvez they won 3-1, but there were at least twice as many chances missed. CNI lost their last home game, but once again, they didn't play bad at all, creating some good chances, but missing once again some quality finishing. Don't expect too much attacking from them, but their defense is quite awful, and should be an easu job for U's forwards. They are also as good as saved from relegation, and with no chances for Sudamericana, they should just try to play some nice football for their remaining matches. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.70, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON

Oct 27, 2010

Leon de Huanuco - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

I know the odds are piss-poor for this one, but I see it as close to a banker as it can get, so I'll gladly take for medium-high stakes. These two teams have been totally opposed throughout the season: Leon have been surprisingly fighting for the title, and at the moment they lead group B by 5 points, and with a win they could go 8 points clear (because Cesar Vallejo plays in Arequipa, and there is a good chance they will lose some points there). No important injuries for Leon... Rodas, Calheira and Perea will all start, they are the awesome offensive power of Leon, and they will settle the match between them. Sport Boys have indeed been surprising lately, as they have 3 wins on the run, and ever since Liguilla started they are the most in-form team. But their wins came against lowly teams, the only big one they've defeated being Cesar Vallejo, but that was in Callao, and that's another story. Away from home, Sport Boys have only one win, and around 3 goals conceded per match. Today they will miss forwards Victor Rossel, so it will be a blow for their offensive powers. All in all, I just can't see Leon losing points here, so even if the odds are pretty much crap, this bet is a solid one. GL!

Leon (-1 AH) @ 1.61, 5/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Oct 25, 2010

CNI - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Nice odds for this match. CNI isn't as bad as the odds or their league position suggests, as they usually play nice football, but they are either unlucky, or they miss quality finishing. But they can put quite some pressure on their opponents, especially when playing at home, and weaker teams usually choke when playing against them. A win today will almost surely seal their ticket for the first league for 2011, and they should also receive a boost as they welcome back their main offensive players, Barrena and Vergara. Last week they lost rather unfairly at Sporting Cristal, after a late penalty, but a draw would have been maybe more correct. But now they are motivated to get back the lost points. Jose Galvez are in deeper and deeper problems. They haven't trained for days before the Universitario game, as a protest for not being payed for several months. And this week was more of the same, as training didn't go as usual, payments still haven't been made, morale between the players is low, and the coach is seriously thinking about resignation. On top of that, we should add their dreadful away performances, where they only recorded 1 win and 4 draws in 17 matches, and we should have a sure victim here in Iquitos. GL!

CNI (-0.25 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

Nublense - Universidad Catolica

Chile Primera Division

Nublense, already troubled with relegation - as they are on a relegation play-off position, 3 points behind the safe spot - will have even more worries tonight, as they are missing a host of first team players. They will have to cope without the presence of injured goalkeeper Viera, defender Ruiz and midfielder Oroz, while two other important players are suspended: captain and midfielder Reyes and defender Julio Barroso. Very important absences for a lowly team like Nublense, as they lack depth in quality, and without some of their most important men, they will have to work a lot in order to replace them. They are in very poor form, with only two victories in the last 10 games, and today they will have to face a wounded U. Catolica, which comes after a dramatic derby with Colo Colo. The title is far away from them, as Los Albos are 10 points clear, but the dreams are still there. Anyway, a second place and a ticket for Copa Libertadores 2011 should be a more realistic objective for Catolica. No important absences for them, as quality wise they are obviously much better than Nublense, who shouldn't put much of a fight with their numerous absences. GL!

Universidad Catolica (-0.75 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10
Result: 1-4, WON

Oct 24, 2010

Sport Huancayo - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Both teams are coming into this match in good form, and both are still theoretically fighting for their objectives. Huancayo are dreaming of qualifying to Copa Sudamericana once again, but with a win today they will still be 10 points behind Juan Aurich, so it's a bit of a stretch. That's why I expect them to start the match more relaxed, but also determined to keep their 'solid home team' status. Their morale should also be renewed after their solid 3-0 win away at Cienciano last week, and I expect some action from Avila and Mostto, but especially from winger Salas, who managed to get a hattrick last week. Alianza are the surprise package in the last few rounds, snatching 3 wins on a run, and two of them against high-profile opposition: a 2-1 at home versus Leon de Huanuco, and a surprising 3-1 at Juan Aurich. So morale should also be sky high for them, but even with such a good run, they need more, as they are still in the relegation area, but with 3 points here they will climb out. So a victory is a necessity for them, but it will be hard for them at high altitude. But, they have proven they can surprise even bigger teams, and with their game going well, I expect them to battle hard. The over looks good, as I expect both teams to score, and matches between them usually go with high scores. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.81, 3/10
Result: 5-0, WON