Sporting Cristal - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!

Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON

Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Huge match in Lima this evening, as Alianza and Cristal are fighting for the chance to stay in the race for the final, and the result of this match could very well mean the end of one's hopes. Since Garcilaso won yesterday as expected, the only option left for these two teams to keep on hoping would be to win. Cristal could retake the lead and tie Garcilaso on points, while Alianza could move up to 2nd place, just 2 points behind the leader, and also overtaking Cristal in the table. And looking at the overall picture, this means a lot more to Alianza: they have already played their two games against Garcilaso, so if they don't win here, their chances will be really slim (this is also their second match against Cristal), and they'll need to wait for a miracle to happen. Cristal still has the home game against Garcilaso, so they could still catch them, but the fact that Alianza will overtake them could further complicate things. So a draw would definitely suit them, but it would mean that Alianza are pretty much buried. That is why I doubt this will be a 'wait-and-see' match, and normally, the hosts should try to take control and attack, while this will definitely open up some spaces for Cristal. And it's worth mentioning their attacking power, as they have the best offense in the league, and the 3 forwards that are expected to start the match (Avila, Ross and Chiroque) have 21 goals scored between themselves. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Divsion, Descentralizado

This should be a match that promises a lot, as we will see in action two of the most offensive teams in the league. League leaders Sporting Cristal seem to be in a league of their own, as they have the best attack so far, with 10 goals scored more than any other team. And they are the strongest when they play at home, where they scored 23 goals. They are still undefeated at home, and they also have a positive record when it comes to under/over, with 8 of their last 10 games ending with at least 3 goals. On the other side of the field, we will have a surprising Sport Huancayo, who have been performing above expectations and find themselves on 4th place, with 9 points snatched in away games (a very good record for a traditional 'home' team). And I'm confident that we should be seeing some goals here, as Huancayo have the second best offense in the league, with 24 goals scored, but also one of the fragile defenses, with 23 conceded (only 3 teams have a worse record). Huancayo have failed to score in only 2 games so far. Cristal will be at full strength, without any absences of injuries, and they will also repeat the line-up that trashed San Martin last week by 3-0. Goals should be plenty. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON

FBC Melgar - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

This game looks promising at first sight, and hopefully, we'll get the needed goals. Both teams will field offensive formations, as both will try to stay true to their style of play. There's no doubt that Cristal has the advantage in terms of quality, but Melgar can pull something off as well. They are playing at altitude, but we've seen before that Sporting Cristal look unaffected by that, since they've already played 3 games under this conditions, and they've won 2 of them. Striker 'Zlatan' Fernandez will be a starter today, after making his debut last week, and he will be joined in attack by Irven Avila and Ross. So we have everything: we have skills, we have pace, and we have a real force in the aerial game play. Melgar will also be fielding an offensive trio, with Meza Cuadra, Ysrael Zuniga and Frontan set to start. These two teams also have a history of providing some entertainment, as from their last 10 games, 7 have ended with at least 3 goals scored. So we have everything that we need here, and if Cristal plays it's usual game, they would be more than capable of winning this bet by themselves. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Cajamarca - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Nice odds for Sporting Cristal, as probably the bookies are thinking that they will rest some of their players, ahead of a very important Copa Libertadores match. But if we are to believe their coach (and there's no reason not to, as they have played with pretty much the best team all of their matches this season), they won't rest anyone and will take on this game in full force. They are once again one of the best teams in the league, and will most likely square off for the title with Alianza, Universitario and with last year's finalists, Real Garcilaso, who are currently topping the table, 3 points ahead of Cristal. They have been awesome so far, with 16 goals in 7 matches, thanks to their classy, in-form strikers: Avila (scored 2 in the league, 5 in all competitions) and Rengifo (2 goals), and of midfielder Renzo Sheput (4 goals in the league, 5 in all competitions). Cajamarca is situated at high altitude, but I don't see it as a major problem. Cristal has the players to overcome this deficit, and they have already won in Huanuco a couple of weeks ago, 2-1. Cajamarca have also lost at home against Alianza Lima (a team that I rate lower than Cristal), and the odds were quite similar. The only problem here would be if Cristal's players think about Libertadores too much, but they are professionals, so I trust they will get the job done here. GL!

Cristal (+0.25 AH) @ 1.90, 3/10
Result: 0-2, WON

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Well, I missed a tempo ever since the lines/odds have opened for this last round in Peru, but let's still try to take advantage of what we have. Sporting Cristal will play the final, and have no chance of losing the first place in the aggregate table. And as a result, they will be playing the first leg of the final next week, in Cusco. Since it will be a very tough match, as a result of the high altitude, they have already traveled to Cusco, where they will remain for an entire week, trying to get used to the air. Therefore, only the goalkeeper and two players from the first squad have remained in Lima, to face Cienciano, and they will be the only experienced players among a group of youngsters. Cienciano has no objectives left, so they will only play this match because they have to. However, they should use their main team, and if we look at the players quality-wise, they should have the advantage. The opening line was great, but the odds dropped a lot ever since. So , I'm taking this bet instead (with a fresh line), and I will definitely take them even as low as +0.5. GL!

Cienciano (+0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 3-3, WON

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Sporting Cristal is, without a doubt, the best Peruvian team of the year. They managed to qualify to the final of the tournament 6 rounds before the end, and now they can just take it easy, and have some 'official training matches' against the rest of the teams. And they also have the liberty to choose which matches should they play with the first team, and in which matches should they try some of the less used players. Today, it will be the second scenario. Cristal is between two weekend matches, they played with the first team last Sunday, and most of them will be rested today, especially due to the high altitude of Cusco. Besides, even with their best players on the field, they still might have suffered today, as they struggled most of the times when they played at altitude this season: they did manage to beat Melgar and Leon, but other than that, they only have draws with Huancayo and Inti Gas, while losing the other 4 games (including the one with Cienciano, 1-2). The hosts are still hoping to get to a continental tournament next year, so for sure they will give their all. And it would also be a high profile win against the best team in the country. The handicap line makes this bet a must-take. GL!

Cienciano DNB @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Sporting Cristal, the best team in the league at the moment, returned to their awesome form after losing in Cusco against Real Garcilaso, and right now they are on 4 consecutive won games, and for sure they would like to add the 5th one. And they can do this quite easily, if they play to their full potential, as Huancayo is just not a team that can compete with the big guns, when playing as visitors. At home they have a big advantage in the form of altitude (that's why they have a 8-2-2 record as hosts), but if you take that away, you get a below-average team, that is usually struggling to get some points from other stadiums. Their away record of 1-3-8 is proof of that. They also have one of the poorest defense when it comes to playing away, with 21 goals conceded, and if we combine that with Cristal's awesome attack (which scored 30 goals in their 12 home matches - 49 in total), we have a match that should easily go the right way. Also, in their last mutual games played in Lima, Cristal won all of them, covering the handicap, and taking the goal difference to 10-2 in just 3 matches. GL!

Cristal (-1.5 AH) @ 2.08, 4/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Very nice odds movements for this match, and even though when the markets opened I said I will stay away, the recent odds just push me to take a bet here. And I will, so let's hope I won't regret it. Both teams are tied at the top of the table, with 35 points, just 2 behind leaders Cesar Vallejo. The quality advantage is obviously on Cristal's side, as they have probably the best squad in the league. But apparently, that advantage is just as important as Garcilaso's: the high altitude, as the club is situated in Cusco. So it should come as no surprise that they have a perfect home record, winning all 9 games played so far, with a goal difference of 17-2. But they also have a solid and competitive team, even though they lack any big names or stars... and it would be unfair to put their performances only on the high altitude (for example, Cienciano are playing in the exact same conditions, but they are only 13th in the table, with a 4-2-4 home record). Cristal has a 1-1-1 record at high altitude this season, winning at Leon, drawing at Huancayo and losing at Inti Gas. Of course, they have enough quality to overcome the altitudes' effects, but since they have often struggled away from home, and Garcilaso looks very strong in Cusco, I really think this should be a home win. Odds are also very good, as we have now -0.25 at pretty much the same odds as the opening ones on -0.5. GL!

Garcilaso (-0.25 AH) @ 2.02, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Sporting Cristal - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

This seems to be by far the best bet of the round. Cristal comes after 2 consecutive defeats, away at Aurich and at Cobresol. This left them on the 3rd place, 7 points behind leaders Cesar Vallejo, so they need to get themselves together and start summing up some points. And they have the right team to do this, as I still consider them one of the main candidates to win the title, despite what seems to be a huge advantage for Vallejo. And it can't be contested that they are class better than a Sport Boys team who is in a deep institutional crisis, and also traditionally poor travelers, with an away record of 2-1-5 (compared to Cristal's home form of 5-3-0). When Cristal wins at home, they usually win it big, as in their last 3 home wins (from the last 4 matches), they scored 11 goals, and the match they failed to win was a 1-1 draw with Alianza Lima. Boys have only one win in their last 10 games, and it seems very unlikely that they can pull off a surprise here. Cristal also won the first match in Callao 5-0, so if they keep focus, they could very well repeat that performance. High stakes for this. GL!

Cristal (-1.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

A lot of disappointment in the Cristal camp. They have a great team, and were being dubbed one of the main contenders for the league title. And while the season is still long, and nothing is decided yet, their recent performances have been far from impressive. 4th place for them, 5 points behind leaders Cesar Vallejo, but what's really worrying is their form, having won a single match from the last 7 they played (it's true that they also had some tough matches, against Cesar Vallejo, Alianza Lima, San Martin, and two visits to high altitude teams... but that shouldn't be an excuse for them). So today they will try to bounce right back, otherwise all hell could break loose. And in front of them will be Cienciano, a traditionally poor traveling team, that has 'lived up' to that name this season as well (0-1-4 as visitors, with goal difference of 2-8). Even their general form is bad, as they only have 2 wins in the last 10 matches. So, with Cristal in pretty much a must win situation, and with a poor Cienciano in front of them, I can't see past a home win for this match. And it should be a big one. GL!

Cristal (-1.25 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

Union Comercio - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

A lot of money was invested in Sporting Cristal during the off-season, and they actually managed to make a good and solid team, finally capable of fighting for the title. But as it's always the case with money-infused teams, too many wrong steps aren't allowed. And Cristal already made 2 consecutive slumps, losing at the newly-reformed San Martin, and drawing 2-2 at home with league leaders Cesar Vallejo. And while none of this results can be condemned (both San Martin and Cesar Vallejo have good players and are solid teams), coach Mosquera can't afford another wrong turn, so he must win this match, without any excuses. And they are more than able to do that, as they proved many times they can take on tough matches (won 3-2 in Huanuco, 5-0 at Sport Boys, etc). Midfielder Cazulo and top scorer Rengifo are fit to play, so that will surely be a boost for the team. Union Comercio is nothing special so far this season... away from home they haven't won a single match, while as hosts they have 2/3 wins, against poor travelers Huancayo and Inti Gas, while losing to Cesar Vallejo. Quality is definitely on the away side here, and I see some value in this bet, as I was expecting at most a level ball on Cristal. GL!

Cristal (+0.25 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 1-1, HALF-WON

Sporting Cristal - Cobresol

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

The Peruvian tournament is about to start in the middle of a tempest, as yesterday the clubs couldn't reach an agreement with the Footballer's Guild about a payment issue with the players, that is why the players decided to go on strike for this first round. However, since the strike will be considered illegal by the Federation, the matches will be played, but a lot of teams will use youngsters or players from the reserve team, who are not under contract with the main club. All the players are showing solidarity with the others, and it is quite certain that 90% of the teams will be fielding a youth line-up. Sporting Cristal, however, could not be among those teams. They have missed yesterday's meeting, and there are rumours going around that they might use their best line-up. And in this case, I feel sorry for Cobresol, who will very likely be pulverized. But, if they decide to go along with the strike, Cobresol's chances will rise, and I expect the game to be much more open. The odds dropped dramatically for Cristal, so if they use their youth squad there will surely be a lot of value on Cobresol +1, but since there is a lot of doubt around the line-ups, the over looks great. Cristal with regulars = trashing. Cristal with reserves = open match, also with chances for goals (we need a minimum of 2, so that's not hard to get). GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.93, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Sporting Cristal - Univ San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

A lot at stake in this match, as with just 3 rounds remaining, San Martin and Cristal are playing their entire season. Both teams had a rather poor start of the season, but both of them recovered well, and now are in the race for a continental cup, with nice chances of succeeding. San Martin will seal their Copa Sudamericana ticket with a win tonight, but more importantly, they will still have some remote chances of going to Libertadores. Meanwhile, Sporting Cristal could tie Inti Gas on points with a win, for the last place that leads to Sudamericana. And besides this, they will be also able to breathe easily, securing their place in the top division for next year (they are currently only 4 points from the relegation zone, and a defeat today could complicate their situation). Both teams are in good form, scoring plenty of goals, and none of them should be happy with a draw. The main offensive players are set to start (Advincula and Alva for Cristal, Arriola and Alemanno for San Martin), so we should be in for a few goals. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.01, 3/10

Result: 0-3, WON

Sporting Cristal - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Sporting Cristal has been in awful form recently, having not won in the last 10 matches, and are coming into this derby in a not so good mood. So then, why to bet on them? First of all, I still give them an advantage in quality, despite being near the bottom of the table, 3 points behind Boys. They have some good players, and with a little bit of work, they could very well climb some places in the standings. Then, we have their form. It's true that their stats are very grim, but in Peru, very few teams keep a winless run for too long, and Cristal's 10 matches run is bound to end sooner or later, and if not against Boys (who are usually very poor travelers - only 2 wins on the road last season), then I don't know against whom. And Cristal will also be able to count on several players that haven't been used last round. They will have a renewed midfield line, as they welcome back Advincula and Lobaton from the national team, along with new signings Espinoza and Ross. Offensive-wise, Cristal should also look better, as they have 3 good forwards ready to jump in: new signings Alva and Gonzalez-Vigil, as well as last season's top-scorer Ximenez. All in all, Cristal have the quality to end their bad run, and the return of the above-mentioned players should provide them with a boost. GL!

Cristal (-0.5 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division

Cristal priced at 2.00 at home against Cienciano? Now what's wrong with this picture. Cristal have been very irregular so far, winning-losing-drawing, without any pattern. Lost at home with Melgar, won away at Sport Boys, drew at home with Alianza, etc... pretty much no logic in their results. And Cienciano come in this match with a great morale, having won 4 of their last 5 matches. BUT, we have to be realistic: Cienciano is still the same team from last year... without too much money, without any big players (except Ibarra). They are playing better than in 2010, so they could achieve a safe position just from the home matches, but I still don't see them as a big threat when playing as visitors, as they are a typical home team, playing at high altitude as locals - and being quite strong when their game goes well, but being really poor on the road, and this has been a pattern established over the last few seasons. The only reason that may put me off this bet are the recent results between them, Cristal not being able to win any of their last 4 matches, also losing their last 2 games played in Lima, but even so, these odds are too good to be missed. They haven't been priced so high since 2007 (last year they were at 1.46), so the odds alone represent value, but I also believe they have good chances of winning this, as Cienciano is very likely just a soap bubble, ready to burst. GL!

Cristal (-0.5 AH) @ 2.07, 5/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Sporting Cristal - Union Comercio

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Neither of these teaams enjoyed a good start, but with Union Comercio being an unknown at the start of the season (and very probably this is their real value), no one expect much of them. Not the same can be said about Cristal, who were announcing very loudly they will be challenging for the title, so for them, the 4 points won in 4 matches are as good as plague. That's why I expect some sort of comeback sooner or later, especially since they aren't so poor as the results suggest. They made a pretty decent match against Alianza Lima, and could have also snatched a draw last round at Alianza Atletico, but they conceded in the closing seconds of the match, after playing the last 20 minutes with a man less. The fans are furious, and are demanding a win today. Anything less might turn ugly for the players and the technical staff. Union Comercio was disappointing in their first matches, conceding 7 goals in their first 2 matches (against Alianza Lima and Juan Aurich), and despite some recent improvements, they still don't look like solid Primera material. I'm counting on a determined performance from Cristal, and with the way the odds have been moving (from 1.43 to 1.73), this bet is really starting to look nice. GL!

Sporting Cristal @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Sporting Cristal - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Quick and small bet on this one, moving this match in my list from a no-bet, to a small stakes home win. Jose Galvez is fighting for their lives here, and only a win can help them. Any other result condemns them to relegate to Segunda Division, as in case of a draw, they will be at most equal on points with either Cienciano or Alianza Atletico, but with a far worse goal difference. So all their cards will be played here, and they'll go all-in from the start of the match in order to find those vital 3 points. Needless to say they will be with a full squad. For Cristal, the season is over, and with a huge disappointment, as after appearing to fight for the title in the first half of the season, they slowly faded, and missed everything, even a spot for Copa Sudamericana. This will be the farewell match for coach Rivera, and in order to keep his integrity and to avoid any comments, he decided to field his best players, so as not to give Jose Galvez and unfair advantages (although this can be done with ease, even with the regulars in the field). That's why I give them the upper hand here, especially with the current odds, but the stakes will be small, as despite Cristal's full strength team, they are still fighting for nothing, and motivation is probably as low as it gets. GL!

Sporting Cristal DNB @ 1.76, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Sporting Cristal - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Both teams are pretty much scoring machines (well, San Martin more than Cristal, but they can also turn the score loose when they get in gear), and with an important match ahead of both of them, I’m pretty sure we’ll see a nice match and a few goals. Sporting Cristal needs to put behind them their recent  bad run of results, if they are really serious about their Libertadores qualification objective (even though it’s almost impossible, being 13 points behind the 3^rd place, but the Sudamericana spot is quite within reach). San Martin are likely to want to keep a hold on their 7 points advantage over Alianza Lima, especially now when they are going to fight on two ‘battlegrounds’, both in the Liguilla and in Copa Sudamericana. And with them being in the Liguilla A, with Alianza Lima and Universitario, any points are up for grabs, so they have to make the most out of every match. The goal scoring chances should also be boosted by the quality of the strikers, as the first two top-scorers in the league belong to this 2 teams: Ximenez from Cristal has 18 goals score, while Arriola from USM is close by, with 17 scored (Alemanno from USM is also worth mentioning, as he also has 10 goals scored), and all of them, along with Vitti (9 goals scored) are reported as starters tonight, so I’m expecting several goals from them, especially since the last 5 matches between this 2 teams have ended in overs.GL!

over 2.5 @ 2.04, 3/10 

Result: 0-1, LOST