Peru Primera Division
Cristal priced at 2.00 at home against Cienciano? Now what's wrong with this picture. Cristal have been very irregular so far, winning-losing-drawing, without any pattern. Lost at home with Melgar, won away at Sport Boys, drew at home with Alianza, etc... pretty much no logic in their results. And Cienciano come in this match with a great morale, having won 4 of their last 5 matches. BUT, we have to be realistic: Cienciano is still the same team from last year... without too much money, without any big players (except Ibarra). They are playing better than in 2010, so they could achieve a safe position just from the home matches, but I still don't see them as a big threat when playing as visitors, as they are a typical home team, playing at high altitude as locals - and being quite strong when their game goes well, but being really poor on the road, and this has been a pattern established over the last few seasons. The only reason that may put me off this bet are the recent results between them, Cristal not being able to win any of their last 4 matches, also losing their last 2 games played in Lima, but even so, these odds are too good to be missed. They haven't been priced so high since 2007 (last year they were at 1.46), so the odds alone represent value, but I also believe they have good chances of winning this, as Cienciano is very likely just a soap bubble, ready to burst. GL!
Cristal (-0.5 AH) @ 2.07, 5/10
Result: 1-0, WON
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