Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16
This match should be a very entertaining show, so I'm really surprised to see such a low goal line (I was honestly expecting to see a high 2.75, with a fair 2.5), therefore I can't see past this match, seeing some nice value in this bet. Atletico Nacional blitzed through their first matches in the group stage, making them appear like strong favorites to go all the way. Their attacking power can not be disputed, as they have the most goals scored in this competition so far (16, without playing against Bolivian or Peruvian teams). However, they didn't win their group because the defense began to fail in the last matches, allowing 8 goals against them (6 of them were only from Godoy, although they did manage to also score 6 against the Argentinians). Normally, Velez should be much better than Godoy, and we can see that even from the standings, so they should have more chances to win against Atletico. However, to do that in Colombia won't be that easy, and the hosts know they need a solid win in order to keep their chances to qualify to the next round. However, their defensive issues should provide Velez with plenty of chances to snatch at least a goal. Poor defense and an awesome attack, against a solid team that knows how to exploit spaces, can mean only one thing: goals! GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 5/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
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