Chile - Venezuela

Copa America

I see some nice value here. First of all, the current odds are around 0.10 higher than the opening ones for a Chile win. Then, I can only imagine the odds if these teams would have met in the first match of the group stage, and I see them as something around 1.40. The fact is that Venezuela indeed managed to surprise a lot of people by being one of the first teams to qualify into the quarter finals. But I don't see them as being anything special. Played a solid defense against Brazil, snatched a win against Ecuador (one of the poorest teams in South America, in my opinion), and then miraculously drew level with Paraguay, scoring 2 goals in the last three minutes. Against Chile, I expect them to play defensively once again, but I doubt they'll be as successful as they were against Brazil. Chile plays more organized, and more team-like, then Brazil, and they are able to break any defense. They won 2/3 matches in the group, with the minimum difference, and maybe could have won even against Uruguay, as they were the better team for much of the game. The only problem for them is the lack of top class strikers (Suazo couldn't score if his life depended on it), but they have some players than could easily be the deciding factor by themselves, like Alexis Sanchez. Venezuela's nice trip in Copa America should come to an end here, as Chile needs to step up a gear, and confirm their status as title favorites. GL!

Chile (-0.5 AH) @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-2, LOST