Atletico Nacional - Sao Paulo

Copa Sudamericana 2013, Quarter-finals

It worked the first time, so why not give it another try now, since nothing has been decided yet in this round. Sao Paulo took the lead in the first leg, but it's a fragile 3-2 lead, and Atletico are aiming high, since they have two away goals scored. So neither team can afford to sit back and wait, especially Sao Paulo, who's defense isn't one of their strong suits (within their last 4 games, there have been a total of 20 goals scored). And this time around, unlike the previous round, they are using pretty much the best squad available: we'll see on the pitch both Luis Fabiano and Aloisio (the two of them scored a total of 16 goals throughout the year), along Jadson and Antonio Carlos, who scored 2 goals in the first leg. Ganso is the only big absence, due to his suspension. So it's a rather offensive team, and I expect Sao Paulo to play their game, especially since the altitude in Medellin isn't too high. Atletico are even less likely to sit back, because they are behind, and they need at least a goal. They proved in the first leg to be a match for the Brazilians, so the home field should provide a boost. If we have a quick goal, this could turn into a goal-fiesta... this line is just too good to miss. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Sao Paulo - Atletico Nacional

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

There was no time for a preview.

over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON

Ulsan - Monterrey

FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Quarter-finals

I really think we should be seeing some goals here. Both teams are usually offensive-minded and with rather shaky defenses, and this competition is usually pretty high-scoring. Let's start with Ulsan, Asian Champions League winners, with an undefeated run in the competition and with 27 goals scored in 12 matches. In the local league they have finished on 5th place, but even there, the majority of their matches ended with a minimum of 3 goals, having scored 60 games in 44 games, while also conceding 52. They might not have too many foreigners in the team, or too many star-players for that matter, but they have a solid squad, that works very well together. On the other side, we have a Monterrey side who won last seasons CONCACAF Champions League, and are on route to defend their trophy, winning all matches in their group. They do like to play offensive football, and they are usually keen on sending the ball forward. And they do have some classy players in their squad: striker Humberto Suazo (Chilean international), forward Cesar Delgado (ex-Lyon), midfielder Neri Cardozo, defender and captain Jose Maria Basanta, Ecuadorian defender Walter Ayovi and forward Aldo de Nigris. They have a lot of skilled players in their team, but it will be hard against a team as Ulsan. The winner might be tough to pick, but the goals should flow. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 1-3, WON

Gremio - Millonarios

Copa Sudamericana 2012, Quarter-finals

As Copa Sudamericana is entering it's latter stages, more and more teams are starting to take it more seriously, and one of these teams is Gremio. Besides striker Kleber, who is doubtful after suffering a minor injury in his last match, everybody else is ready to go, as a full strength Gremio is expected to take the field on Tuesday night. If in the last round we saw Millonarios facing another Brazilian team, Palmeiras, and they managed to qualify after a great comeback in the second leg, this time we'll have a different story. Palmeiras used a mixed team in the two legs, and were still the better team when they played in Brazil, winning 3-1. If Gremio uses their best players, it will be a lot harder for the Colombians, as Gremio also has a better squad than Palmeiras. Of course, Millonarios could strike on the counter attack, which is one of their favorite tactics when playing away from home. With both teams expected to use their best squads, and with a place in the semi-final at stake, I think this should be a nice clash to watch, and the goals should come. Gremio is of course the favorite here, but the handicap line is too big if we think that Millonarios can also score. Therefore, the over bet seems like a much better choice. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Kashiwa - Monterrey

FIFA Club World Cup

Two mainly over-ish teams will meet today, so I'm honestly a bit surprised to see such a low line (was expecting something like 2.75). Monterrey, like all mexican teams, plays technical and offensive football, and are usually looking to score, instead of preserving the score. After their Champions League victory, they seemed to disconnect from the league, that is why there weren't any notable performances this season (only 12th place in Apertura), but they still provided some entertaining football, having the 4th best attack in the league, but also the 7th worst defense. Kashiwa plays pretty much the same style, although in their first match against Auckland they chose to keep the 2-0 advantage. Anyway, they had some dangerous offensive surges in the first half, but in the second half, when they decided to sit back and protect their lead, Auckland had a couple of runs that could have made some damage if the level of finishing would have been better. With Monterrey's class being far above Auckland's, I'm expecting them to take their chances, and I believe we should see a nice and exciting match. GL!

Over 2.25 goals @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST

Vasco da Gama - Universitario

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

Lost a bit of value for this bet, but I decided it's better to wait until the mast minute for the latest news. And apparently that was a good thing, as today I just found out that Vasco's coach has decided to use his best players, unlike a few days ago, when there were speculations that he'll use a reserve team again. But no, he wants both the Brasileiro and the Sudamericana, and it's expected that we'll see the same team that played against Santos in the weekend. Juninho, Diego Souza and other top players are therefore expected to start, and I'm counting on Vasco to start pressing early on, as they have a 2-goal deficit to overturn, and the extra-time surely doesn't feature in their plans, due to their packed schedule. Universitario will also use their best squad, after resting a few key players during the weekend, and although they'll probably sit back and try to defend, they can create some real havoc on the counters. Fano and Ruidiaz are very fast strikers, and they had a bit of fun with the Brazilian defense in the first leg. Surely it won't be that easy tonight, but they have good chances to score (in the previous round, Vasco won 8-3 with Aurora, with the Bolivians scoring 2 goals while being a man down), and we should be seeing at least 3 goals here. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 5-2, WON

LDU Quito - Libertad

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

I'm going early with this bet, as odds already started to drop heavily, and will most likely continue to do so. The quarter-finals of the Copa Sudamericana presents us a few surprise teams, and one of them is Libertad Asuncion, who pulled off a great win and qualification against Sao Paulo. But now they have an even harder task, as they have odds against them. First, they have to face LDU Quito, a strong cup opponent, who is always a threat in the continental competitions, especially at home, as they have a huge advantage in the high altitude from Quito. Secondly, Libertad could also feel some heavy legs, as they played 4 matches in the last 10 days, and the coach had little chances to rotate his squad, as Libertad is also fighting for the national title. So, a run of many games, combined with the jet-lag and the effects of the altitude, don't look to good for the Paraguayans. LDU had a slightly easier schedule, and their excellent home form in the continental competitions give them the edge here. No important injuries for any of them, and I'm confident LDU will head into the second leg with an advantage. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Universitario - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

With only 6 rounds remaining in the Brasileiro championship, Vasco is still hanging on to their top spot. But after their last 0-0 draw, Corinthians tied them on points, with Botafogo also lurking close by, so obviously, the focus for everyone at the team goes to the local league. That is why they have decided to send only 3 of their regulars to play in tonight's match: goalkeeper Prass, defender Conserva and midfielder Diego Souza. All the others are left in Brazil, including star player Juninho Pernambucano, so the rest of the places on the pitch will be taken by reserves and maybe even a few youngsters. Universitario has ended it's national campaign, as it doesn't look likely they will score other points in the remaining rounds, due to some debts they have with the Players' Syndicate. All the players are well rested, as the weekend match from Cuzco was played by the reserves/youngsters, so they should be well prepared for the Brazilians. Universitario put in some good performances to knock-out Godoy Cruz in the previous round, and they should again have the edge here, against a second-string Brazilian team, that is also probably thinking more about their weekend clash with Santos. GL!

Universitario DNB @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Santa Fe - Velez

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

I'm expecting some goals here, so this line obviously seems rather low. Velez doesn't seem like the most offensive team in Argentina, and that is true, but they come into this match on a nice goal-scoring form, as they have scored at least a goal in their last 9 matches (althoough in those 9 games they scored only 11 goals), but the fact is that they are scoring. And since they took their best players to Bogota (full strenght line-up is expected), I don't expect them to go down so easily, especially since they can do a lot of damage on counter-attacks. However, I'm expecting Santa Fe to be in a commanding position for this match, helped also by the altitude, and they can score the 2 goals needed for the void all by themselves. Especially since they enjoy being giant-killers, and for that we only need to look at their previous match, when they trashed Botafogo with 4-1. They should also be well rested, as they had a full week to prepare for this match, and know that a narrow 1-0 lead probably won't be enough for the second-leg. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.80, 3/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

Chile - Venezuela

Copa America

I see some nice value here. First of all, the current odds are around 0.10 higher than the opening ones for a Chile win. Then, I can only imagine the odds if these teams would have met in the first match of the group stage, and I see them as something around 1.40. The fact is that Venezuela indeed managed to surprise a lot of people by being one of the first teams to qualify into the quarter finals. But I don't see them as being anything special. Played a solid defense against Brazil, snatched a win against Ecuador (one of the poorest teams in South America, in my opinion), and then miraculously drew level with Paraguay, scoring 2 goals in the last three minutes. Against Chile, I expect them to play defensively once again, but I doubt they'll be as successful as they were against Brazil. Chile plays more organized, and more team-like, then Brazil, and they are able to break any defense. They won 2/3 matches in the group, with the minimum difference, and maybe could have won even against Uruguay, as they were the better team for much of the game. The only problem for them is the lack of top class strikers (Suazo couldn't score if his life depended on it), but they have some players than could easily be the deciding factor by themselves, like Alexis Sanchez. Venezuela's nice trip in Copa America should come to an end here, as Chile needs to step up a gear, and confirm their status as title favorites. GL!

Chile (-0.5 AH) @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Argentina - Uruguay

Copa America

Don't think the odds will change too much anymore for this match, and even though the odds on the handicap have dropped, I still find this bet as being a very solid one. Argentina didn't show anything at all in the group stage, thus the draws with Bolivia and Colombia (in a match that they could have easily lost, the Colombians missing some very clear chances). The only good match for them was in the last round, 3-0 with Costa Rica, but keep in mind that the Central Americans were using their U-23 squad. The difference in class was huge, so it was really a no-sweat win for the hosts. But now, things will be totally different. Uruguay is one of the best teams in South America (best performance at last year's World Cup, where they took 4th place), and are a team that can beat anyone in their day. It's true, they also weren't at the top of their game in the group, but I expect them to raise their profile a bit now. The main problem for them was the finishing... had a ton of chances against Mexico, but only managed to convert one. But the attack can only get better, as they have pure quality players up-front, and they can deliver when they need it. Argentina honestly doesn't scare anyone anymore, and this is more like a bet against them, rather than a bet on Uruguay. This match has some nice chances for a surprise, as I expect Uruguay to qualify for the semi-finals, but I'm taking the safe road, and taking this +1 handicap. GL!

Uruguay (+1 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 1-1, WON

Mexico - Guatemala

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2011

Mexico went into the quarter-finals with an 100% record in the group stage, reaffirming their status as huge favorites (especially after USA's recent slumps). But not only did they with all 3 of their matches so far, the fashion in which they did was really top-class: two consecutive 5-0 victories against El Salvador and Cuba, followed by a 4-1 win against Costa Rica, in a match where Mexico actually rested a couple of players. So it is quite clear that they are at least one class better than all of the other teams present. They should get a nice rest before this match (5 days between the matches), and I expect them to power their engines again (although they don't need even 50% to easily beat anyone). Guatemala managed an unspectacular qualification, but they were in the weakest group, along Jamaica, Honduras and Grenada. A draw with Honduras, defeat against Jamaica and just a 2-0 win with poor Grenada were enough for them to qualify, although as the best ranked 3rd place finisher. But they are poor, and if Jamaica managed to beat them easily, I also expect a total wash-out from Mexico. The handicap could have been bigger (I was actually expecting a -2.5), so this one looks more than acceptable. I just don't see Mexico failing to win by more than 3 goals. GL!

Mexico (-2.25 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Jaguares Chiapas - Cerro Porteno

Copa Libertadores

After in the group stage, Cerro was one of the entertainers of the competition, with 21 goals scored in their matches (including some results like 5-2 and 3-2 against Colo Colo), they proved they can also play with pragmatism, as they recorded two 0-0 draws with Argentinian giants Estudiantes, before going on to win the tie on penalties. Defense was their main focus then, and it worked perfectly.So I hope we can count on another solid defensive display tonight, as well as some cunning counter attacks, because from what I've seen in Jaguares's matches, their defense is by no means at a top level (last match in Colombia, their goalkeeper was the main protagonists, with 2 goals exclusively from his blame... but after he attacked the manager after being substituted, I doubt we'll be seeing him again any time soon). Jaguares is officially the poorest team to reach this round, and it's a mystery to me how they are still hanging on. Against Junior, they came from behind 3 times to qualify on the away goals rule, but if anyone had a worse defense than them, that was definitely the Colombian team. The last goal was a screamer in the closing minutes, so Jaguares also had a lot of luck to make it to the quarter finals. But Cerro showed solid defending recently, and they surely can't be as bad as Junior... and with Nanni and Fabbro on the field, they are sure to torture the Mexican defense. GL!

Cerro (+0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 1-1, HALF WON