Jul 9, 2011

Uruguay - Chile

Copa America

The odds on the overs are probably greatly influenced by the poor display of football that we had so far in the tournament. From the 7 matches that were played so far, only 1 ended with over 2.5 goals, and only in 3 of them were at least two goals scored. So this probably had a big impact on the bettors and the bookies, who are choosing caution for this types of bets. But still, that I don't see a big relation between the previous matches and the next ones, and since here we have 2 naturally overish teams, I'm going with goals. And there are some good signs here, as both Uruguay and Chile conceded in the first round, and did so against some rather poor opponents, offensive-wise. And if they allowed goals from Peru or Mexico, teams that aim their main focus on defense and organized play, I can only expect that they will also concede against each other. We have some big players responsible for goals here, and I expect them to be enough for at least one goal apiece. Forlan, Suarez, Cavani, Sanchez... hard to see them not scoring, especially since this match could prove crucial. Both teams will probably qualify with ease (as I don't expect Mexico to get more than 1 point in this group), and whoever wins this match will also probably win the group (Chile will make 6 points, while Uruguay can make 4 points and will play against Mexico in the last round). So caution is pretty much useless here, and both teams should go for the win. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.72, 4/10
Result: 1-1, VOID

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