Jul 9, 2011

Peru - Mexico

Copa America

Can't believe these odds, and even more surprising is that they're not falling at all. Odds on Chile against the Mexicans went from 2.20 to 1.40, but there seems to be little movement here. Not saying that Peru should be as big a favorite as Chile was, but still, I see anything above 1.80 as pure value. Mexico is forced to use their Olympic U-23 squad, with only 5 senior players, and if there is anyone worth mentioning, that is Gio dos Santos. And that's it! All the other players from their squad are from the local league, and neither of them has a worth-mentioning name or history. They didn't play too bad against Chile, but I mainly blame it on the Chileans underestimation of the young Mexican team. I don't expect the same issue with Peru... they are aware of their lowly status in South America, so they take each match with determination. That is their main weapon, as well as a very careful and organized play, leaving few spaces for their opponents, and that is how they snatched that point from Uruguay. So I expect this match against Mexico to be a rather tight and dull affair, but Peru should come out on top at the end. Even if they don't, I just can't imagine losing, so this DNB bet is perfect. GL!

Peru DNB @ 1.72, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON

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