Apr 4, 2012

Alianza Lima - Vasco da Gama

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Vasco da Gama comes into this match as great favorites, but I don't expect things to be so easy for them. They've only managed to beat the handicap in one game, two weeks ago at home against Libertad. Otherwise, they were a team of ups and downs, losing at home to Nacional, struggling to beat Alianza at home (3-2, despite having an extra man for the entire second half - also missed 2 penalties) and drawing 1-1 in Paraguay. Now, with two away games left, they need all the points from this match, otherwise they could be left out of the competition. Therefore, I expect them to attack and impose the game, like in the first leg, especially since Alianza's defense isn't anything special, and Souza, Nilton and Alecsandro should find plenty of spaces. For the Peruvians this is also a capital match, and only if they win they can still hope to achieve something in this group. They are motivated, the coach having rested several of his key players during their weekend match, so I also expect them to go out looking for the win. Vasco's defense isn't very solid either, so Fernandez and Arroe could also have some chances. The bottom line here is that neither team affords to lose, so they will most likely go for the win. Two goals is the minimum I expect, but we should see plenty more. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.76, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON

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