Mar 7, 2011

Velez Sarsfield - Boca Juniors

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Nice to see such nice odds against Boca, especially when playing against a team like Velez. Today's hosts might be in bad shape lately, being still winless in the league after 3 rounds, in which they drew with Independiente and Argentinos Juniors, and lost at home to All Boys. Last match was played in Libertadores, and they somehow managed to squander a 3-1 lead and lose the match (they were playing with one man less since 3-1, but still, it's not easy to concede 3 goals in the last 15 minutes). That is why coach Gareca won't try anything funny tonight, won't make rotations in the team, and will throw all he's got, in order to end their bad run, and to record a high-profile win against Boca. Top scorer Santiago Silva looks to be 100% fit, and will start from the first minute, providing a huge boost for the team, and completing the offensive formation that Gareca has prepared, with Silva and Martinez up-front, supported by Ramirez and Moralez. Boca is a team that you don't know what to expect from it... very unstable and irregular. First they get trashed at home by Godoy Cruz (1-4) after showing some horrible defending, than they win 1-0 away at an in-form Racing, just to draw at home against All Boys, who are a good team, but not excelling away from home. Riquelme still not playing, due to a coach decision, and while I don't think they are poorer without him, morale will certainly be a bit lower... plus, they eliminate a danger at set pieces. I think this match will be all up to Velez. If they can recover their game and keep their heads cool, they shouldn't have a problem, and since I was expecting odds around 1.75-1.80, the current odds are too good to miss. GL!

Velez (-0.5 AH) @ 2.14, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON

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