Copa Libertadores 2012
El Nacional was the surprise package in the Ecuadorian Serie A last season, pulling off a great season, and finally taking the last Libertadores spot, after a play-off with 3rd placed LDU, taking advantage of the Albos packed schedule and player rotations, due to their Sudamericana final. However, their merit still exists, and now they have high hopes of qualifying for the main stage of Copa Libertadores, especially since they have kept most of their players from last year, trying to build on that. The problem with them is that the players are very young, and are lacking international experience, so they might find that a solid team from Paraguay is too much for them. Young players have a lot of energy, and will to perform, but they might also lose their head fast if put under pressure. Also, statistics are against them: last time they played Libertadores was the Preliminary round in 2009, when they were knocked-out by Nacional of Paraguay, while in their mutual matches with Libertad (2005 and 2006) they made 2 draws and lost the other 2. Libertad is a very solid team, with a lot of experience on this stage, having won their Libertadores groups for the last 3 years, also being undefeated in the group stage in the last 2 years. They have also kept most of their players from last season, so we will probably see a well built team, with a good and comfortable system. They have previously pulled of good results against better teams than them, so El Nacional shouldn't scare them. The only real advantage the Ecuadorians might have is the high altitude, but Libertad also showed they can handle it (last match played in Quito was last year in Sudamericana, against LDU, and they made a very good match, despite losing unluckily in the 90th minute). They can also do some serious damage on the counter-attack (I'm expecting El Nacional to try and take control of the match), so with this handicap line I'm willing to try a small bet. GL!
Libertad (+0.25 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
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