Copa Libertadores 2012
Libertad lost in the first leg, by a narrow 0-1, so I was expecting a -0.75 to bank on it, but unfortunately, the bookies only offer -1 at some pretty low odds. So this definitely isn't a value bet, but still, it's a bet that should be a winner (or at least not a loser). The first match was considered to be an equal affair, and indeed it was. El Nacional won, but it really could have gone either way, with Libertad creating several chances, but failing to score any of them. So, with the background set, we come to the second leg, which I expect to be a bit different. The Paraguayans will surely take on a more offensive approach, as they are trailing by one goal, while the Ecuador side already expressed their plans to use a more defensive minded strategy. What will be the deciding factor then? First of all, Libertad has an overall better team than the Ecuadorians, and it is a more solid team, with more international experience. Then, El Nacional won't have the altitude advantage as in the first leg, and that also drops their chances for this match. Finally, Libertad is a very tough team to beat when playing at home, and teams like LDU Quito, Sao Paulo and Fluminense stand proof for that. They should qualify, but even if they don't, a win shouldn't be under question. Small stakes only, because of the lack of value of this bet. GL!
Libertad (-1 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON
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