River Plate - Nacional

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

To be honest right from the start here, these odds are just ridiculous. Nacional is Nacional, and they will always be a big name and a good team in this league, but looking at their recent matches and at River's form, it's just silly to give out such odds for them, and make them 1.70 favorites. I'm not impressed at all with the way the team has played, ever since Arruabarrena took over as coach, despite still being undefeated. They managed two wins against last placed Bella Vista and against troubled Liverpool, but they only managed a draw at home against high-flying El Tanque Sisley. And their game is generally not as convincing as it should. And this match also catches them in a tough scheduling-moment, as they will have the Super Clasico against Penarol on Saturday, and are in the middle of a Libertadores clash with Real Garcilaso (lost first leg by 0-1). Three important players will be absent today: defender Nunez (8/0), forward Bueno (4/2) and Alvaro Recoba (4/1). The rest of the regulars will start the match, but they may suffer from fatigue a bit, after a tiring match played at over 3500 meters of altitude last Thursday. River is in awesome form, with 4 consecutive wins, and 6 out of 9 throughout this competition. With a win today, they will be the leaders of the Clausura, equal on points with Defensor, so if they needed some extra-motivation, they have it. And in recent years, they've also had some superiority against Nacional: if we look at their last 10 mutual matches, River won 7 (including the one from Apertura, as visitors, by 2-0), and also recorded a draw, leaving Nacional with just 2 wins. I'm confident they will remain with some points tonight, and these odds are just screaming to be taken. GL!

River (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST