Atletico MG - Sao Paulo

Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16

This bet looks so obvious that I'm actually afraid it may fail. However, this is a must-take in my opinion, as the line was set quite wrong (I was expecting to see a 2.75 with mid-1.80s, and with a line of 3 being the fair one). The first match that was played last week had two different stories. Sao Paulo took an early lead, was controlling the game, and had a few other chances to increase their advantage. But soon enough, a red card was shown to their defender Lucio, and the entire game was turned around. Atletico took control, equalized and then overturned the result, winning by 2 goals to 1. So right now, there is a simple strategy for Sao Paulo: attack, and score at least 2 goals. They welcome back striker Luis Fabiano, which will definitely provide a boost to their offense, and if we count him along the other stars of the team (Rogerio Ceni, Jadson, Ganso, Denilson), they have some good chances of scoring more than one. And I seriously doubt that Atletico will just sit back and defend the narrow lead. This is not their style, as they always prefer attacking football to defensive one. Within their ranks, they have Ronaldinho, Jo or Diego Tardelli, players that can put a lot of offensive pressure, and can create something out of nothing. This will be a game between two overish and offensive teams, and 3 goals are the minimum that I'm expecting. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 5/10
Result: 4-1, WON