Uruguay - Argentina

World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers

The last day of the World Cup qualifiers is upon us, and if we look at it realistically, Uruguay needs a real miracle to achieve a direct qualification. Let's look at the facts: we all know the fixing theory that circulates, involving Chile and Ecuador in a draw that would seal direct qualification for both of them, and if that's the case, Uruguay has no chance. And a draw in Chile is, of course, very much on the cards. And even if one of them wins, they need to do it big, same as Uruguay needs a big win against Argentina. But, there's more to this match: Argentina will be using a mostly-reserves team, as they won't be counting on Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Gago or Mascherano. So they will have to cope without a handful of world class players, while at the same time Uruguay will be at full force (Cavani and Suarez will lead the attack). Even if they won't achieve a direct qualification, for Uruguay this is a derby, and it would indeed be shameful to lose on their own ground against a B squad of Argentina. A win here will bring the players a morale boost, and will leave them in good mood for the play-offs. I believe Uruguay will take the match seriously, and will fight until the very end. And this means that besides going for the victory, they should be also going for the goal difference. Despite the odds having dropped quite a bit, I still think both the home win and the over are solid bets, and I'm going to go against my rule and take two bets on the same match. GL!

Uruguay (-0.5) @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON

over 2.5 goals @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON