Recopa Sudamericana
I'm on the same train as pretty much everybody else who's betting on this game. LDU's home form is just great. They haven't lost a single game in Casa Blanca in 2010, and their last final, at the end of last year, ended in a thumping 5-1 against Fluminense. And their high altitude gives them a big advantage, especially against teams that aren't used at all to play at such heights, teams from Brazil and Argentina (home advantage helped them to win Libertadores in 2008, and the Recopa and Sudamericana in 2009 - and they were undefeated at home in all of those competitions). All regulars rested on the weekend, so they should all be fresh for this match, and their squad is at full power, only Ulises de la Cruz(27/2), who is suspended.
Estudiantes seems to be moving a bit slower than last season, and they pretty much had problems in all their matches so far (needed a penalty against Newell's, scored 2 late goals against Quilmes). And for today, as has been already said, they will miss a bunch of important players: GK Orion, DF Desabato and FWs Fernandez and Lopez. And I've looked through their matches in the last years, against teams that are playing at high altitude, and since 2006, Estudiantes has never won at high altitude: 2006 - 0-1 at Bolivar and 1-3 at Santa Fe; 2008 - 0-1 at Cuenca, 0-2 at LDU; 2009 - 0-1 at Depor Quito, 0-0 at Universitario Sucre; 2010 - 0-0 at Bolivar. LDU should be at the peak of their form, and if they take the Argies hard from start, the score could give them a nice advantage for the return leg. GL!
LDU (-0.5 AH) @ 1.80, Sbobet, 5/10
Result: 2-1, WON
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