Sep 24, 2010

Emelec - Universidad San Martin

Copa Sudamericana

I see some nice value here. Even if both teams will be with their best squads, I'd still see this match as a open to any outcome, with pretty much equal chances, so odds over 2 on two of the outcomes are surely value. But Emelec will have some squad problems, especially in defense, and that could prove costly for them. Achilier (29/0) and Mina (17/0), both of them defenders, are suspended after being sent off in the first leg, while another defender, Marcelo Fleitas (29/4), is injured. Moreover, two other defenders are still unfit, and with almost no chances of playing tonight, Morante (21/0) and Zambrano (4/0), thus forcing coach Sampaoli to use Carlos Quinonez (6/0) on the right and midfielder Gimenez will cover the left flank of the defense, while midfielder Jose Quinonez will be drawn back to the defensive line to play along the 3rd substitute for the central defender spot, Deison Mendez (3/0). Otherwise, there should be no other major problems in the team, but this improvised defensive line could get Emelec in a lot of troubles.

San Martin comes without any major absences, and will repeat the same line-up that won in Peru, with the only exception being Heber Arriola's return in attack, where he will make a couple with Alemanno, and with Vitti also in the starting team, we will have on the field San Martin's main goal-scoring force (they scored 26 goals between themselves). Besides that, San Martin has the best squad that they had in ages, and are the most solid and stable team in Peru, and I rate them much higher than Emelec, and with the absences in defense for the Ecuadorian side, the Peruvians should take their chances. Another thing is that despite this match being played in Ecuador, Guayaquil is not situated at high altitude, so San Martin won't have to face the stiff air. GL!

Universidad San Martin (+0.5 AH) @ 2.16, 4/10
Result: 5-0, LOST

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