Toluca - Puerto Rico Islanders

CONCACAF Champions League

I'm going with yesterday's trend in the Concachampions, and I'm going to back a Mexican team to cover the handicap again. After a sloppy start in both competitions, Toluca has shown some improvements in the las couple of weeks, and since the 0-0 draw away with FAS, they went to win 3 matches (2 of them in the league) and make another draw, last week at Necaxa, moving to second place in the group in the Mexican league. In the Champions League, they share the top spot with the Islanders, and today will be an important match, that could decide who wins the group. No official line-up is available yet for the Mexicans, but most likely it will be a mixed team on the pitch, with some reserves among the regulars (as they usually do in this competition), but still, the quality advantage should still be in their favor. Moreover, Toluca is at over 2000 meters of altitude, and it will be hard for a team from Puerto Rico to play like they usually do. One more thing: today, Mexico celebrates 200 years of independence, so Toluca will be likely to start the celebrations early, with a nice game and a win against the Islanders.

Puerto Rico Islanders don't seem to be a force like in last years, finding themselves only around mid table in their league. They are still strong at home, and Toluca might have problems there, that is why this match should be a 'must-win' for the Mexicans. Despite being rather poor travelers, the Islanders also have to cope with a pretty long journey to Toluca, and one there, they will have to face the altitude and a very solid home team. Moreover, in the last month they had to play almost every 3 days (played 8 matches in August), and they will continue doing so in September as well (this will be the 5th match in 13 days), so either they will also mix their squad a bit, either they will be exhausted. Either way, advantage goes with the Mexicans, and they should win this one easy, especially from statistical point of view, the Islanders always losing with handicap in the CL in Mexico. GL!

Toluca (-1.5 AH) @ 1.95, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON