Feb 12, 2011

Tacuary - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Nice value for this match, because as much as I think about it, I just can't seem to understand why on earth Tacuary is set favorite, and with odds less than 2. Seriously, no explanation at all. They are undefeated after 2 games, it's true, but their win came against Luqueno, which is one of the poorer teams in the league, while their draw came against Cerro Porteno, who is in bad form, and despite dominating the entire match, didn't manage to score the winner and clinch it. Guarani won the Apertura in 2010, and kept fighting at the top in the Clausura, so it's pretty much obvious they are the better team, and as proof we can also look at the head-to-head statistics, with Tacuary winning just 5 out of 23 matches, but only 2 of those wins came in the last 4 years. So it's a clear superiority for Guarani, and there's no reason why it shouldn't go on in this match. Copa Libertadores is scheduled next week, and Guarani will be performers, but they will use their regulars tonight, and I see them as favorites for this match. Going with the value. GL!

Guarani (+0.5 AH) @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 0-0, WON

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