Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
Judging by the recent trend in Ecuador, this line/odds are way too high for this match. I've spoken before about the trend of derbies ending with very few goals, and this match fully fits the pattern. Very important match for both teams: with a win, Emelec assures they sit on the top spot at least until LDU have to play their postponed match, while Deportivo Quito could tie Emelec on points if they win today, and will give a whole new meaning to their match against LDU. So it's surely a match that neither team wants to lose, and if we think about how they play, not losing will be their main focus, not winning. Out of their last 10 matches, Emelec finished 8 of them under the 2.5 line. Deportivo has a better percentage, with 7 overs from 10 matches, but all of them were against mug-teams. The matches against some more illustrious opponents (LDU, for example) finished as unders. One more reason for this bet resides in the head-to-head: from the last 10 encounters between Emelec and Deportivo, only one of them finished with 3 goals... even their previous match of the season, played in Quito, finished 0-0, so we have a good set-up for another boring affair. GL!
under 2.5 goals @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
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