Nov 30, 2011

Rubio Nu - General Caballero

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Odds went up for this match, without too much explanations, thus giving us what I see as some very nice value on the home team. The lines is now -0.75, and for that we have better odds than the original -1. Both teams are still fighting for something, although objectively speaking only Rubio Nu has some real chances of achieving something. They are currently sitting in the last place that qualifies to Copa Sudamericana, and if they want to keep it, they need to win here, as Guarani is just 2 points behind them. Morale should be high after last weekend's surprise win at Nacional, and they also have a domination of Caballero, having won all 3 of their matches this year. General Caballero is trying hard to avoid relegation, but nothing seems to be going their way. They are last in the promedio standings, and from my calculations they would need to win 3 of the last 4 matches in order to remain in the division (assuming Luqueno also loses all of their matches), but with their current form (lost 4 of their last 5 games, including a shocking 3-7 loss at home to 3 de Febrero), I doubt there is much they can do. GL!

Rubio (-0.75 AH) @ 2.12, 3/10
Abandoned in 42nd minute due to crowd violence, VOID

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