Feb 16, 2012

The Strongest - Santos

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Very nice odds on Santos, so let's see if we can take advantage from them. Despite being the reigning champions of the Copa Libertadores, and having an awesome squad for any standards, Santos are just very slight favorites for this match, and the main reason for that is, of course, the high altitude from the city of La Paz (nearly 3600 meters above sea level). And while the altitude issue has been decisive in many cases, a strong enough team will deal with it somehow, and you still need a pretty solid team to win the home game. And The Strongest isn't one of those strong teams. Last season, Santos made a good performance to win 1-0 in Manizales, which is also set at around 2000 meters above sea level. Of course, there's a difference between 2000 and 3600, but there is also a difference (quite big) between a good and solid team like Once Caldas, and a rather average team from Bolivia. Santos will take on this match with all their big guns, including Neymar, Ganso, Edu Dracena, Elano, Renteria, and their new signing from Porto, Jorge Fucile. So, in terms of quality, they are miles ahead of The Strongest, and if they can get a fast goal, the game should pretty much be over, as they also know how to control the game with prolonged possession. Higher stake than usual, because I really see a solid bet. GL!

Santos DNB @ 1.87, 6/10
Result: 2-1, LOST

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