Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage
Opening odds were nothing special for me, as the handicap line was set at 1.25, far from being appealing. But odds moved a lot lately, probably because some absences in the Brazilian camp, moving the -1 line to a decent price, making a bet worthwhile. Let's talk about Emelec for a moment: as I've said before in previous analisis, Emelec isn't the same team as last year. Then they had a good team, but the coach's style of playing wasn't really suiting the players. A change of coach brought better results, but they made some changes during the winter break, although now of the new players have impressed me so far (although they have Lucho Figueroa, with lots of European experience). They made a good start this season, although with some emotions (came from 0-2 to 3-2 against lowly Macara), but lately they seem to be in a downtrend, drawing 0-0 at Manta and losing the clasico with LDU, 0-2. Flamengo drew 1-1 at Lanus in their debut; but for this match they will have a few absences: the goalkeeper Felipe, and a few midfielders: Renato Abreu, Willians and Airton. With all of these, I still see the Brazilians as favorites to win this game, as the quality is still on their side, despite the absences. Bottinelli and Ronaldinho should lead the midfield line well, and all the balls that reach the strikers are potentially dangerous, as the strikers will be the very experienced Wagner Love and Deivid. I honestly don't expect Emelec to take something from this match, so it will be up to the Brazilians to beat the handicap. GL!
Flamengo (-1 AH) @ 1.75, 5/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
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