Mar 29, 2012

LDU Quito - Independiente

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

The odds are definitely not to my satisfaction here, especially since they went down quite a bit, but this bet should be won without a sweat, and even the -1 is worth taking. That's because LDU has a great team this season, and after 3 matches without a single win, they are bound to bounce back and take the points. Coach Bauza worked a lot with the team, trying to get them back into focus, as the draw with Tecnico and the back to back defeats with Cuenca and Loja have left a lot of people angry, including the fans and the management. I still see LDU as the main favorites to the title this season, and those last 3 matches should be enough for a wake-up call. Defenders Araujo and Calderon are suspended, but should be well replaced by de la Cruz and Bone. Independiente is making quite a nice campaign so far, but they have started to show their limitations in the last few matches, drawing at last placed Olmedo before losing at home to Manta. Also, they will be missing 3 regulars today, and that should make the team even weaker, especially in midfield, where they will miss Leon and Ona. Would be a huge surprise if LDU fails again, but I'm sure they will recover, and the score could get ugly for Independiente.

LDU (-0.75 AH) @ 1.69, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

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