May 11, 2012

Santos - Bolivar

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Very early bet here, as despite the line being quite high (although fully expected), the odds should drop in the next couple of days. So, here we have first of all a high quality difference between the teams. Home side are the reigning champions of Copa Libertadores, and runner-ups in the Club World Cup of last year. On the other side, we have a Bolivian team whom we can't say is in a very good moment, and they are also a team that are traditionally poor travelers (home they have a huge altitude advantage, but when you take that away from them, they are below average). However, they still got 4 points of of 9 as visitors, in the group stages. But this time it should be different. Besides the above mentioned quality difference, Santos also have the motivation to take this game seriously. Losing 1-2 in the first leg, they have no other option than to win here, in order to avoid the shameful 'performance' of being eliminated by a Bolivian team. Even though a 1-0 win should be enough for them, I am very sure they won't approach the match with this in mind. Two goals are the minimum that I expect, but normally, this match should have plenty. Small stakes only, as the Brazilians to have a tendency to become lazy. GL!

Santos (-2 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 8-0, WON

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