U Catolica - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Huge drop of odds and change of lines here, and to be honest, I can't find a good enough reason to justify these changes. It is true that Emelec will be missing about 3 key players (striker Marlon de Jesus - 24/14 - is injured, while midfielders Gaibor - 18/3 - and Valencia - 15/2 - are unavailable, due to suspension or fatigue after the international day) but that shouldn't be enough to make the lines change so much. Emelec missed a few players in the last round as well, but they still managed to win the game, even though their opponent was weaker than today's one. The most important absence will be the one of strikers' Marlon de Jesus, but from what I've seen, he should be well covered by the new forward, Denis Stracqualursi, who scored 3 goals in his first 2 games for the club. Universidad Catolica has a good team, as they are flying high and are sitting on 3rd place, but we've seen their limitations in the last couple of rounds, as they were beaten by Independiente at home, and away at Deportivo Quito. And I expect Emelec to have the first chance here as well, despite their absences, as they seem to be at a totally different level when they play their game. Keep in mind, the lines/odds changed from -0.25 at 1.94 (opening odds) to +0.25 at much better odds, so from my point of view, we have a big value on this bet. GL!

Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 4/10
Result: 2-1, LOST