Quilmes - All Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Quilmes could (and should) be leaving the last place of the Apertura, and could also do a step forward in their desperate tries to avoid direct relegation - not very big chances for that, but Gimnasia look even more awfull, so you never know. Today, they are finally able to return on El Centenario, after a few matches played on neutral ground, due to some problems with the supporters. And besides the return to their home ground, and their good recent form (4 points in the last 2 matches), they wil also be receiving an All Boys team filled with injury worries. The surprise package of the Apertura is coming into this match with 4-5 injuries, almost all of them being first team players. The most important one will be the absence of striker Ereros, which, combined with Fabbiani's absence, triggered the change of the tactical formation to a 4-4-2, trying to get more defensive stability, since there will be some diminished firepower up front. Quilmes is in a big need of points, and I'm expecting them to take control of the game, and push for the goal early on. However, All Boys proved several times they are very solid and stable in the back, and with the new formation, they shouldbe extra-careful. Add to that Quilmes looks awful in offence, and lack too much creativity, the under bet looks pretty good here. GL!

under 2.25 goals @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Newell's Old Boys - Quilmes

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I was really impressed with Newell's in Sudamericana, following their 6-0 win, as they really did a great match, and have shown that their recent form is not random. They have a good team, and their game plan is working like a charm. Of course, they were also helped a lot by the awful Bolivians, but let's not minimize their merits. Today they'll have a much more difficult game against Quilmes, as even the poorest team from Argentina shouldn't be as bad as San Jose were. But Newell's form and morale following their 11 games without a win, and their record-breaking Sudamericana win, makes them strong favorites for this game, and I'm sure they'll want to continue their run. Most of the players that trashed the Bolivians will also play today. The only important missings will be defender Alayes - who will be rested, and winger Estigarribia - injured. But overall they will still have a very solid team, with players like Schiavi, Sperduti, Formica and Borghello playing their part. To assume Quilmes can snatch some points here is a bit of a stretch in my opinion. Last place in the table, and without a win so far must have really broken their spirit, and the worst part is that they don't seem capable to snap out of it. They might have snatched some draws against teams with big names, but overall, they are performing poorly, so points won with River, Independiente and Argentinos can't really be points of reference. Newell's is a class better than them, and anything else other than a clear win here (2-0, 3-0) would be a big surprise. GL!

Newell's (-1 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

River - Quilmes

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura 2010

River is suffering from the 'South American team syndrome', or, how I like to call it, the 'Peruvian team syndrome', when a team that plays at high altitude wins their home matches, but fails to do the same in away games. However, this is most unusual in Argentina, and I don't see the reason behind it... maybe at home they get pushed from behind by the supporters, or maybe they have a complex when playing on other stadiums... who knows. The fact is that they have won all 3 of their home matches, against much better opposition than Quilmes (they've beaten Tigre, Independiente and Arsenal), and I expect them to continue their form. No reason to question their motivation, as they are threatened by relegation, and they should get the maximum against direct rivals, especially at home. That is why coach Cappa decided to go with an offensive trident, consisting of Pavone (Betis player on loan, who is highly expected to burst and finally start scoring some goals), highly rated Buonanotte and team top scorer Funes Mori. They haven't played together too much this season, but the coach expects this formula to work, and so do I.
Newly promoted team Quilmes looks set to go back from where they came from, as they are still winless after 7 rounds, with only 4 draws, but only one of them away from home. They are very poor, that's a fact, and individual quality is certainly on River's side. The reports are saying Quilmes won't stay at the back and defend tonight, and if that is the case, their strategy will likely be suicidal, as River has enough ability to torture them on the counter attack. The only way for them to leave with something from El Monumental is to defend, but they have to do it perfectly, otherwise, this could get ugly. Either way, this should go as a win for River, and the -1 looks quite safe. GL!

River (-1 AH) @ 2.00, 5/10

Result: 1-1, LOST