Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!
Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
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Jul 21, 2013
Jul 18, 2013
Olimpia - Atletico MG
Copa Libertadores 2013, Final
Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID
Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID
Jul 11, 2013
Cajamarca - Universitario
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!
Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!
Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Jul 6, 2013
Sport Huancayo - Leon de Huanuco
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Still can't believe the opening odds here, and even though they have been slightly corrected, we still have value in this bet. Huancayo are doing a good campaign so far, sitting on 5th place in the table, and losing just one match at home, helped mainly by the high altitude present in their city. So, of course, they are pretty much favorites against anyone when playing at home, but today's game isn't a usual one. Leon de Huanuco are just 5 points behind, and if we look at their recent matches, they are one of the most in-form teams in Peru, beating Garcilaso and Universitario in their last 3 games (both of them at home, though). But what makes the current odds ridiculous, is the fact that Leon also plays at high altitude, so they shouldn't be affected by Huancayo's main weapon. And if we take a closer look to Huancayo's records, we can see that they drew at home with Garcilaso and Melgar, and lost with Inti Gas, all 3 of them being teams used to play at altitude. Leon are traditionally a tough nut to crack, so to give +0.75 for this match is just insane. GL!
Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Still can't believe the opening odds here, and even though they have been slightly corrected, we still have value in this bet. Huancayo are doing a good campaign so far, sitting on 5th place in the table, and losing just one match at home, helped mainly by the high altitude present in their city. So, of course, they are pretty much favorites against anyone when playing at home, but today's game isn't a usual one. Leon de Huanuco are just 5 points behind, and if we look at their recent matches, they are one of the most in-form teams in Peru, beating Garcilaso and Universitario in their last 3 games (both of them at home, though). But what makes the current odds ridiculous, is the fact that Leon also plays at high altitude, so they shouldn't be affected by Huancayo's main weapon. And if we take a closer look to Huancayo's records, we can see that they drew at home with Garcilaso and Melgar, and lost with Inti Gas, all 3 of them being teams used to play at altitude. Leon are traditionally a tough nut to crack, so to give +0.75 for this match is just insane. GL!
Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Jul 1, 2013
Barcelona - Quevedo
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
Barcelona is also without an option to get something from this Stage, but they are happy and content with the recovery the team made, after a disastrous start of the season, when the main focus was on Copa Libertadores. Once that ended, they were able to fully focus on the league, and we can see the results, having lost just one game from the last 10 played. Their main objective today is to keep improving and to end the stage on a high note, to give them a base to work on for the second stage. However, things will be made harder by a couple of high profile absences, as goalkeeper Banguera (20) and defenders Perlaza (17/0) and Erazo (16/0). That should leave quite a big hole in the defense, and Quevedo could be able to punish them, especially if they play like they did last round, when they came back into the match from 1-3 down, to beat Deportivo Quito by 4-3. Nothing at stake here, so the teams should be able to play freely, and if we combine this with those defensive absences that Barcelona has, we should most likely see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Barcelona is also without an option to get something from this Stage, but they are happy and content with the recovery the team made, after a disastrous start of the season, when the main focus was on Copa Libertadores. Once that ended, they were able to fully focus on the league, and we can see the results, having lost just one game from the last 10 played. Their main objective today is to keep improving and to end the stage on a high note, to give them a base to work on for the second stage. However, things will be made harder by a couple of high profile absences, as goalkeeper Banguera (20) and defenders Perlaza (17/0) and Erazo (16/0). That should leave quite a big hole in the defense, and Quevedo could be able to punish them, especially if they play like they did last round, when they came back into the match from 1-3 down, to beat Deportivo Quito by 4-3. Nothing at stake here, so the teams should be able to play freely, and if we combine this with those defensive absences that Barcelona has, we should most likely see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
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