Nov 23, 2010

LDU Quito - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Primera Division, Segunda Etapa

This is a logical follow-up bet to the one from yesterday. As expected, LDU won comfortably against El Nacional, and are 99% in the final of the championship (the only way for them to miss it is to lose their 2 remaining matches by at least 3 goals, while Emelec should win their matches by at least 3 goals... sounds a bit fantasy). And, since LDU played yesterday with most of their regulars (only Barcos was unfit, while Guagua was suspended), I see it as impossible that even one of the regulars will play today as well, keeping in mind that on Thursday they will play a decisive game against Independiente, leaving for Argentina today, as soon as the match against Deportivo ends. So, they can afford to lose both hames left in the league, as long as they keep the difference at a minimum, and with the alternative line-up that Bauza will probably field, I don't give them much chances (doubt that even the reserves will play, as they also need them for the Sudamericana match). Deportivo is sure they will be playing the play-off for the last Libertadores spot, but the 3rd place is in their sight, as it will allow them to finish the play-off series playing at home, and that could be a nice advantage. And a win today will make them out of Barcelona's reach. They will miss a couple of players, most notably 'Zlatan' Fernandez, but overall, they should have a better squad than Liga's 3rd string team. And since this is also a derby of Quito, I expect them to want to win the match. GL!

Deportivo Quito @ 2.30, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

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