Feb 3, 2011

Deportes Tolima - Corinthians

Copa Libertadores

Whoever watched the first leg knows that there is nice value in this bet, despite no goals being scored in Brazil. The Corinthians defense was tragic most of the times, with the Colombians breaking on the counter attack several times, creating very dangerous chances to score, including a wrongly disallowed goal. The entire Brazilian tactics was pretty much retarded, as they failed to put enough pressure in offense, so Tolima didn't pack their defense, giving them plenty of opportunities to challenge the high defensive line of Corinthians. And for this second leg, Timao has to take more chances, in order to find at least one away goal, that will make them favorites to qualify to the group stage. And Tolima also changes their style when playing in Ibague, going more in attack, and are known for scoring goals. So with both teams forced to attack, I'd have to give advantage to Tolima for this match, as they should take their chances on counter attacks, but if the Brazilian defense is as weak as last time, the goals could come even from positional attacks. Both teams should score, so the qualification will probably be decided by who scores that extra-goal. There is also a small altitude issue, but Ibague is just at 1000 meters of altitude, so I don't think that should be much of a problem for Corinthians. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

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